Nuisance Rain and Wind to Start

This weekend article proudly advertises a charity event that is close to my heart. It goes back over 10 years to a few of us setting up a Halloween maze in my buddy’s driveway. Since then it has grown into a very fun and popular Halloween event in Ocean County known as Operation Halloween. From the official event page:

Operation Halloween is a charity Halloween festival that includes both scary and kid-friendly fun that is hosted by the Southern Ocean Rotary Club and The Jersey Shore Council Boy Scouts of America. The event is held Friday and Saturday, October 20-21 at the Joseph A Citta Scout Reservation located at 229 Brookville Road in Barnegat, NJ.

100% of the proceeds from Operation Halloween go to benefit the many participating charities. The primary beneficiaries are the hosts of the event: The Southern Ocean Rotary Club and The Jersey Shore Council Boy Scouts of America.

The event features fun for all ages from 4-7pm then the scary stuff (Terror in the Pines) from 7-10pm. For more information, please visit the event page by clicking here.

Operation Halloween Special Event Forecast: The event is rain or shine! Friday night could be challenged by rain as indicated by the forecast below. A good night to bring ponchos, umbrellas, and footwear that you are comfortable getting muddy. Friday night should be in the 55-60 degree range with rain and breeze out of the S/SE. Saturday night should be rain-free as rain is expected to end by early Saturday afternoon.  It will still be breezy but out of the W/NW, which should help dry some of the grounds. But not all of them. So again…footwear that you’re okay getting a little muddy. But no umbrella or poncho needed Saturday night. Saturday night should be the colder of the two nights with temps falling through the lower-50s into the upper-40s by midnight.

Discussion: A deep trough should push through the E US this weekend. On the front of the trough is some weak and unorganized interaction between an ocean disturbance and another disturbance passing through the NE US. If these two areas of energy were to phase aggressively, we’d have a doozy of a storm. But as of right now they are only loosely interacting which means our upcoming weekend rain event will see weaker dynamics. This means that we likely won’t deal with dangerous weather safety hazards outside of normal rain and wind travel concerns. So nothing destructive but certainly nuisance. I’m seeing a period of clouds, rain, and breezy/gusty winds between early Friday morning and about noon Saturday. Rain should be on-and-off, not steady throughout. Although when it does rain, it could pour locally. Rain should end around noon Saturday but the back-side of the late-developing low should provide breezy/gusty winds through Saturday night and much of Sunday. It should be dry though from noon-ish Saturday and forward. Sunday should have even more of the “here comes the colder months” feel to it, especially after sundown.

Thursday (Oct 19) overnight temperatures should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts. Clouds should fill in with first raindrops possible by sunrise Friday morning.

Friday (Oct 20) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. It probably won’t rain the entire day but certainly on-and-off. Hopefully more off than on for outdoor interests. Impossible to break it down to an hourly schedule. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-50s statewide as rainfall chances persist into Saturday morning.

Saturday (Oct 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s, possibly a few degrees milder once the skies improve. Skies should start mostly cloudy with breezy rain. Rain should end by/around noon-ish, hopefully earlier, but breezy winds should continue out of the W/NW as clouds give way to sun. Winds should persist overnight though, sometimes gusty. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Oct 22) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations. A few spots could just break 60 but not guaranteed. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy/gusty out of the W/NW to start but should subside some through afternoon/by evening. Overnight lows should range from upper-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates highs in the mid-to-upper 60s and lows in the upper-30s/40s. Mostly dry with lots of sunshine. Hopefully the weekend rain pattern breaks for next weekend. It’s too soon to call now. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC