Nov 5: Rain Approaching the Region

The warm and mild trend is soon coming to an end as a cold front approaches the region. Clouds should continue to increase through this afternoon/evening with drizzle and light rain possible at any time. The main batch of precipitation will begin falling early tomorrow morning and should last into tomorrow evening. By Friday morning the center of the low pressure disturbance should be over the extreme NE US area. This will result in northerly winds as colder air filters southward behind the system. Lake effect snow is possible for NY State and PA regions to the SE of the Great Lakes but probably not likely for NJ. Here’s the latest GFS showing precipitation and pressure at 850mb Friday morning at 7AM:

It is important to note that the low pressure disturbance will not remain in-tact as it moves from the Great Lakes over the Ohio Valley and into the Atlantic Ocean. A primary area of low pressure will move over the Great Lakes and transfer to a secondary area of low pressure by the time it reaches the ocean. This can typically result in a dry slot (no precipitation) for areas between the transfer. It’s much more felt when it’s snowing than raining. As far as rainfall amounts, this system doesn’t look too serious…maybe a half inch to an inch at most when all is said and done. Winds could gust to 20mph during the system’s most intense period but that’s about it.  This is a nuisance system more than anything else. It starts this evening/early tomorrow AM and its out of here by Friday. I’ll have the full weekend outlook posted tomorrow but for now the weekend looks mostly dry and cool. Be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC