Nothing Crazy Expected this Week (Jan 12-16)

Temperatures this week should be pretty average for January, if not slightly above-average towards the end of the week. I’m still watching a low pressure disturbance that could impact extreme SNJ/SENJ on Wednesday morning but no major snow storms are on the table in the near foreseeable future. I’ll have a more detailed long range outlook posted later this evening but for now let’s look at each day of this week:

Monday temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 30s this afternoon (40 along coast) which should help melt any surfaces that are still frozen from this morning’s event (mostly NWNJ and generally NW of I-95). I doubt we’ll see the sun much today and precipitation could even go back over to a wintry mix and/or snow later this evening. Winds should remain light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should drop below freezing (low-to-mid 20s) for the entire state so watch out for black ice wherever surfaces are still wet. Most road treatments will have been washed away by the daytime rain.

Tuesday high temperatures should stay below freezing expect for SENJ. Expect a  range of low 20s to low 30s from NWNJ to SENJ. The sun should make it’s return with a few clouds here and there. Winds should be light to moderate out of the N/NE thanks to dominant high pressure to the N of NJ. Overnight lows should then drop into the single digits (NWNJ) and teens (SENJ)…maybe low 20s along the coast.

Wednesday morning-early afternoon is the only period I’m watching this week for potential wintry weather. A weak low pressure disturbance will be moving off of OBX and the northern fringe of precipitation shield could graze SNJ/SENJ. Right now the Canadian supports it while the GFS and Euro keeps it out to sea. I’ll give this a 20% chance of bringing precipitation into extreme SNJ/SENJ. The rest of NJ (CNJ and NNJ) shouldn’t have to worry about it. High temperatures should range from mid-20s (NWNJ) to mid-30s (SENJ) with plenty of sunshine north of the precipitation cutoff. Winds should be extremely light out of the E/NE with overnight lows dropping into the teens and 20s statewide.

Thursday should range from lower-to-upper 30s statewide for high temperatures. Expect a mixed bag of sun and clouds with light NW winds. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-teens (NWNJ) to mid-20s (SENJ)

Friday should range from mid-30s to lower-40s for high temperatures. Expect another day of variable sun and clouds with light NW winds. Overnight lows should again fall back into the teens (NWNJ) and 20s (SENJ). An early peek at the weekend indicates more of the same. Many long-range signals are indicating a period of temperature moderation for next week (Jan 18-23). Let’s play it by ear though.

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Be safe and have a great week! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC