New Jersey Welcomes Fall Conditions

Discussion: Fiona is now in the trough capture process and will deliver a extratropical superstorm to the Nova Scotia/Newfoundland region of the western N Atlantic. New Jersey has always been far-removed from direct Fiona impacts outside of enhanced surf and rip currents. However, we’re stuck behind the capture and currently seeing strong colder flow out of Canada from the N/NW or NW as high pressure also floats through to New Jersey’s SW—delivering the pressure gradient squeeze of isobars through our region. Hence, the gorgeous crisp, brisk, cool, dry, etc. weather we’re experiencing now through Sunday morning. Temps will moderate slightly on Sunday as the high gets offshore and brings back some return flow.  It then looks like another quick-loading cold front will push some more rain through the region Sunday night into Monday morning. Next week would then be reasonable/seasonably average temp-wise with more NW flow. Then all eyes turn towards whatever Ian is going to do. As of right now I am becoming more concerned for those along the N and E Gulf of Mexico coasts for a solid hurricane landfall. I am also gaining confidence that Ian’s remnants will slide up the coast towards NJ for secondary impacts in the Oct 1-4 window (next weekend). Ian will weaken over SE US land but could still bring a cyclonic rain system, possibly some wind issues, to NJ and much of the east coast. I’m going to monitor for another day or two then begin serious tracking if the status quo on guidance holds.

Friday (Sept 23) high temperatures should fail to escape the 60s. Skies will remain mostly sunny with a cool, crisp, and dry fall feel. Winds should remain breezy, perhaps even gusty, out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40-50 range for most. NWNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens could flirt with dipping into the 30s.

Saturday (Sept 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s, maybe break 70 away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mostly sunny…another beautiful early-fall day. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to near-60 from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (Sept 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Can’t rule out some afternoon/evening showers. Otherwise a pleasant day slightly milder than how Friday and Saturday were. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to coasts as isolated/scattered rain pockets push through into Monday morning.

This weekend in a sentence: Fall started right on time and will provide a cool and mostly dry weekend.

An early look at next week indicates highs in the 60s/lower-70s with lows in the 40s/50s. For the most part we are finished with 80s outside of that freak October day or two we always see. Looks like any rain (after Sunday night-Monday morning) will likely hold off until later next week. Starting to take Ian’s potential a little more seriously. Ian could be making landfall in the Gulf of Mexico mid-next week with remnants sliding up the coast towards NJ in the Oct 1-4 window. More to come. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™