New Jersey Prepared to Bake

Discussion: As Glenn Frey once sang, “The heat is on!” The summer solstice is days away and we’re experiencing peak sun angle/hours of daylight from now through the 4^th of July. Before I jump into a rather simple “hazy, hot, and humid all week” forecast, there are two points I want to highlight.

1) General health – This week is going to push dangerous levels of heat and humidity (100+ real feels) across most of New Jersey. Please stay as cool and hydrated as possible, especially if you work outside. Know the signs and differences between heat exhaustion (seek immediate rest and hydration) vs. heat stroke (seek immediate medical attention). Check on your elders or those without AC.

2) Thunderstorm development. While no synoptic systems or frontal systems are expected, it’s still possible to see isolated thunderstorms in a setting like this. Capping inversions (likely to set up and inhibit storms) can break (locally and sometimes violently). Sea breeze fronts can provide adequate lifting to create and hold in place, thunderstorms along/just inland of the coast.  Most of this week will be mostly sunny statewide during the hot and humid pattern. But keep a localized eye to the sky. Coasties, when a seagull looks very white in contrast to the dark cloud behind it, that’s a good sign to prepare for an isolated sea breeze front-driven thunderstorm.

Moving back to the most reasonable forecast assessment, high pressure is setting up north of Bermuda and will pump heat and humidity into NJ from the S or SW the entire week. This is the high that pushed through Friday and brought a refreshing feel on the front side of it Saturday. Now we deal with the return flow of the high which looks to remain stationary into next week. This will build an anomalous ridge (close to 600dam) over the NorthEast and Mid-Atlantic US which will be the culprit for locking the hot and humid pattern in for weeks to come. It does, however, look like this Thursday-Friday is the flex point (hottest and most humid conditions) of the pattern. Next week still looks hot and humid but not as bad as this ~Thursday-Friday. Maybe 85-94 instead of 90-100 but still uncomfortable humidity.

Monday (June 17) high temperatures should reach/break 90 away from the ocean, especially along 95/NJTP. Coastal areas should range from 75-85 from immediate beaches to mainland. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Today (Monday) starts a prolonged stretch of warmth and elevated humidity. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW (breeziest along SENJ coast, least breezy for NWNJ). Overnight lows should fall into the mid-60s for most of New Jersey.

Tuesday (June 18) high temperatures should reach the mid-90s for most area and could flirt with 100 in the typical warmer areas along 95/NJTP. Coastal areas likely held in low-to-mid 80s prior to any sea breeze front formation. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall back into the mid-to-upper 60s.

Wednesday (June 19) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 90s for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal areas closer to 80. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall back to the mid-to-upper 60s.

Thursday (June 20) high temperatures should at least reach the mid-90s, possibly 100 away from the ocean. Coastal areas likely low-to-mid 80s prior to any sea breeze front formation. Skies should be mostly sunny with a humid feel. Overnight lows should stay above 70 for most areas with NWNJ elevations and immediate coastal locations dipping just below 70.

Friday (June 21) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 90s for most areas away from the ocean and a decent chance of breaking 100. Coastal areas likely low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should hang near-70 again for most NJ locations.

An early look at the weekend indicates the hazy, hot, and humid pattern continuing. Both days hot but Sunday looking like the hotter day. I’m assuming the rental check-in/beach traffic should be “interesting.” Regarding any storm potential, please see the discussion above. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC