Discussion: We’ve finally turned the corner towards the warmer months of the year. I can handle a cold March but a cold April chaps my posterior. For much of April, either onshore flow (45-55F) or N/NW flow (even chillier) has dominated our air mass source. Only yesterday, have we transitioned towards a warmer S/SW flow…and this looks to hold. I’m not saying every day will be warm from here until summer. But most days should now reach above 70 inland/above 60 along the coast. We are likely finished with highs only in the 40s/maybe 50s. An E US ridge is responsible for the anomalously warm conditions that began yesterday and will persist through this week. The ridge will weaken a little Tuesday into Wednesday which will allow for slightly cooler conditions, especially for NNJ but then rebuild for Thursday-Friday. Saturday looks cooler and unsettled (front side of ridge high pressure onshore flow) but then a quick return to warmth is expected Sunday into next week as more ridging builds over the E US. So that’s how the upper-levels will generally affect NJ’s weather pattern. Looking at lower levels, we’ll likely deal with precipitation in the form of instability-driven showers, possibly some thunderstorms, on any given day. I don’t see any larger-scale synoptic rain until this weekend and it won’t be from a low…moreso from convergence between onshore flow and an approaching warm sector. I wish the weekend looked better from this point but it looks unsettled. There’s still time for models to be models but meteorologically, it makes sense for clouds and rain for at least Saturday, possibly into Sunday morning.
Monday (April 29) high temperatures are already (as of Monday 1pm) over 80 for most NJ areas. Some 70s, even 60s, along the ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. I imagine some interior CNJ/SNJ could flirt with 90 by about 3-4pm. Skies should remain mostly sunny but isolated thunderstorms could pop during afternoon/early evening hours. Winds should remain light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall to the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ locations.
Tuesday (April 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most NJ locations. Can’t rule out lower-80s for interior CNJ/SNJ and can’t say NENJ and the immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts will escape the 60s. NNJ should be chillier than SNJ in general though. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with more afternoon/early evening thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S for coastal regions, light out of the NE away from the ocean. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts with isolated thunderstorms around.
Wednesday (May 1) high temperatures should reach just over 70 for most NJ locations. Coastal areas should stay in the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. A slightly cooler-feeling day after Sun-Tues. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 for most areas.
Thursday (May 2) high temperatures should push to near-80 for most NJ locations. Coastal areas should hang in the 65-70 range. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 50s for most areas.
Friday (May 3) high temperatures should only push to about 75-80 for most NJ areas, especially away from the ocean. Coastal areas likely held around 65. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Winds should be light out of the E/SE, maybe a bit breezier right along the ocean. Overnight lows should fall to a few degrees on either side of 50.
An early look at the weekend indicates upper-60s/70s for Saturday temps but an unsettled look meaning clouds and rain possible. We do have some time for this to change (for models to be models) but from this current range, it’s not what you want to see for outdoor interests. Sunday looks like the better day, but could still start rainy at first, with a return to warmer temps to continue into next week. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™