Discussion: The storm system has cleared out. Decent rainfall across New Jersey. Winds got up there for coastal regions last night and especially with the frontal passage around/just after midnight. But most gusts remained below 45mph. Areas away from the ocean experienced less wind gust speeds as expected. Today’s NW winds are manageable however will help bring a colder night tonight. An area of high pressure should now set up over the interior E US (WV/VA/W MD/SW PA-ish) until about Friday. That means a dry week for New Jersey but not a blowtorch. NJ will be just to the E of the high which means N flow around the high anti-cyclonically. So daytime temps this week will likely be capped in the low-to-mid 40s while overnight lows fall into the 20s/30s. A few degrees above average? Sure. But not warm.
Most long-range signals however are grim for the snow lover through the rest of this December. We do not have a prolonged cold pattern in place that typically supports snowstorm development. A snowstorm between now and New Years would have to be a thread-the-needle event in an unsupportive pattern. There are some long-range signals that indicate the pattern turning colder as we leave December and enter January. This includes the Polar Vortex moving from Siberia through China and into N America as well as a few other metrics (MJO, EPO). But until then, it’s thread-the-needle potential only. The next storm signal is this coming Sunday, but the data is not consistent. The GFS has an organized rainmaker while most other guidance has precipitation missing out to sea. We need a few days for the system to present consistent NJ hits to take seriously. Then there is the weak coastal Dec 23 signal. For that, there would be marginal cold available but it’s still a little outside of our comfort range.
For now, we’re looking at a prolonged dry period depending on what the Dec 17-18 and Dec 23 signals do. Plenty of time left though. Winter hasn’t even started on the calendar, only meteorologically. We might however go scoreless through the first two innings of this winter baseball game.
Monday (Dec 11) high temperatures have likely maxed out in the 40s. Skies are mixed but improving. Winds are breezy, occasionally gusty, out of the NW but not bad. It will all lead to a colder night with most NJ locations falling below freezing and, in most cases, mid-20s just before sunrise Tuesday.
Tuesday (Dec 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s again with mostly clear skies. Winds should relax and shift to the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Wednesday (Dec 13) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most NJ locations with a mix of sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (Dec 14) high temperatures should reach near-40. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Friday (Dec 15) high temperatures should reach near-50 with mostly clear/sunny skies. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates the milder conditions spilling over into at least Saturday and most of Sunday. There’s a storm signal I’ve been watching for Sunday night into Monday but it lacks data consistency. Not ready to call for it nor write it off. But likely rain if it happens. Also watching weak coastal signal Dec 23. Otherwise, rest of December is a non-supportive pattern for snowstorm development. Some early signals indicate a transition to colder/snowier between end of December and first week of January. But chances of a White Christmas are rapidly diminishing unless the Dec 23 signal improves. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC