Mostly Nice Week Expected (July 18-22)

The week should start hot and unsettled but eventually give way to beautiful summer weather before another hot and humid weekend. Let’s break it down:

Disco: Today till feature another day of heat and humidity ahead of an approaching cold front. The cold front should pass through and bring some relief overnight from NW to SE. Once again, SENJ will be the last to see the frontal passage and therefore could remain slightly humid into Tuesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are possible along and ahead (pre-frontal trough) of the cold front with NWNJ favored over SENJ for severe-criteria dynamics.  Pre-frontal trough activity would be earlier in the day (afternoon-early evening) and have a better chance of severe nature due to solar surface heating. Cold front activity would be overnight and have less of a chance reaching the coast due to loss of solar surface heating (sunset) and destabilized air mass from pre-frontal trough activity. Once the cold front is completely through sometime on Tuesday, the rest of the week looks great at least heading into the weekend.

Monday (July 18) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s away from the ocean and mid-to-upper 80s along the coast. Heck I wouldn’t be surprised to see 90 along the coast. Elevated humidity will contribute to higher heat indices. Skies should be mostly sunny and hazy during through at least afternoon/early-evening hours. As discussed, showers and thunderstorms are possible as early as afternoon for NWNJ and as late as overnight hours for SENJ. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW ahead of the front. Overnight lows should fall only fall into the 70s along the coast (60s for NNJ elevations) as possibly stormy and unsettled weather persists through Tuesday morning.

Tuesday (July 19) high temperatures should reach into the 80s statewide. Areas N and W of the SENJ coast should see lower humidity levels. The SENJ coast could hold onto such. Therefore, skies should be mostly sunny and drier for NNJ, CNJ and some of SWNJ. Let’s allow for partly cloudy skies and a chance for showers and thunderstorms in SENJ given proximity to the frontal boundary and warmer/humid air mass. Winds should be light out of the NW if you are NW of the frontal boundary. SENJ could see light S/SE flow. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly down into the 50s.

Wednesday (July 20) high temperatures should reach into the low-to-mid 80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasantly dry statewide as high pressure pushes the frontal boundary into the ocean clear of SENJ. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most with NNJ elevations possibly down into the 50s.

Thursday (July 21) high temperatures should flirt with 90 away from the ocean. The coast should break into 80. Skies should be partly sunny. Due to the departing area of high pressure, winds will shift back to a southerly flow and bring back the humidity. Therefore, winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight low should fall into the lower-70s for most and possibly the 60s for NNJ elevations.

Friday (July 22) high temperatures should reach well into the 90s away from the ocean. Interior CNJ/SNJ might flirt with 100. The coast should easily reach the mid-to-upper 80s. Skies should be partly sunny and humid with heat indices flirting with 100. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should have trouble falling below 70 statewide. Parts of SNJ and the coast could actually have trouble falling below 80.

An early look at the weekend indicates hazy, hot and humid conditions with typical heat wave isolated thunderstorm activity. We could be looking at 100+ conditions. There remains no widespread rain systems on the near horizon.

Marine Notes: Ocean temperatures along the Jersey Shore are well into the 70s. Monmouth, Seaside and LBI buoys are currently registering 75, 76 and 77. Atlantic City, Ocean City and Cape May are slightly less. They should back off a bit later this week but return to their slow and gradual increase towards 80 (est. Aug-Sept) during/after the weekend. Ocean wave direction and intensity over the next week or so appears to be E/SE between 2-3 feet.

Stargazing Notes: The best stargazing nights this week will be after the cold front is through…so Tuesday and Wednesday night. We’ll have dry and clear sinking air thanks to high pressure. Just keep in mind that the moon is full on Tuesday, also known as the Thunder Moon, and will present a challenge for astro photography if you are shooting for something beyond the moon. Have a great week and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™