Discussion: Low pressure is currently offshore but high pressure remains over NJ. A series of high pressure areas should produce a dry and comfortable Monday-Thursday this week. Mostly NW quadrant flow with lower dews but with a milder feel. Low pressure in SE Canada, will then drag a cold front through NJ Thursday night into Friday. This likely means rain in that period but not necessarily a prolonged event, especially if a thinner rain front. Don’t let the 6-hour total precip block model output, that’s driving your forecast apps, fool ya into thinking an all day rain event. It could be much shorter than you think. Once through, this should take areas NW of I-95 into a colder drier feel for the weekend. Areas SE of NJ however could either stay cool and dry, Sat-Sun, like the rest of NJ or possibly deal with some clouds and even rain from more offshore low pressure. Best to revisit this in a few days with higher confidence. Otherwise, some fantasy range synoptic storm signals are showing up. Nothing worth taking seriously but just another sign and reminder that soon we’ll be tracking snow on the models and ultimately in live observation.
Monday (Nov 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a comfortable feel. Winds should be light out of the N. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Tuesday (Nov 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most areas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some areas in CNJ/SNJ, away from the ocean, take a run at 70. Skies should remain clear and mostly sunny with a pleasant feel. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Wednesday (Nov 10) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny with a slightly cooler feel than Tuesday. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (Nov 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds, eventually becoming mostly cloudy by evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE for most, breezier along the ECNJ/SENJ immediate coast. Overnight lows should only fall to the 50s as rain chances increase.
Friday (Nov 12) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s. Maybe some of interior CNJ/SENJ flirt with 70 again. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Can’t rule out thunderstorms along the cold front. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 for most.
An early look at the weekend indicates cooler and drier conditions after the Friday cold front rolls through. Watching low pressure offshore in case it brings some clouds/rain into SENJ or possibly a little further. NWNJ would have best chance to drop and dry out after the front. Otherwise highs in the 50s/lows near or slightly below freezing type stuff. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™