Mostly Nice Conditions Expected (June 26-30)

This week looks pretty good but with a few things worth noting. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: High pressure should have control of the region however 500mb heights should be below average to start the week. While this means no synoptic-scale rain systems, it does not mean totally dry. Any reasonable area of convergence or lifting will have an easier time generating a thunderstorm given the colder air aloft. This also means that hail is on the table. Thunderstorm development could be from a sea breeze front or just from general diurnally-destabilized areas assisted by converging surface air. We’ll have to play the radar by ear. Such stormy occurrences would likely be extremely localized. Otherwise you should notice crisper weather with the fall-like upper level clouds through at least Wednesday. As we then head into the weekend, 500mb heights rise and support another hot and humid environment. This will quickly return the upper-levels to a summery visual appearance. Wash. Rinse. Repeat.

Monday (June 26) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant aside from any localized pop-ups that might try to form. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal areas hanging around 60.

Tuesday (June 27) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s. Skies should be partly sunny with a few showers and thunderstorms around, especially during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most with coastal areas again hanging around 60. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a few 40s clock in overnight from either NNJ elevations or interior pine barrens.

Wednesday (June 28) high temperatures should reach the upper-70s/lower-80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny and pleasant. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s and 60s. An expected 10 of a day.

Thursday (June 29) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most and possibly flirt with 90 for interior CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with noticeably returning humidity. Winds should be breezy out of the S. Overnight lows should struggle to dip below 70 statewide.

Friday (June 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most and likely break 90 away from the ocean. Skies should be mostly sunny and humid. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a thunderstorm however pop off of a sea breeze front. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should again struggle to dip below 70.

An early look at the weekend indicates continued warmth and humidity with isolated showers/thunderstorms possible during afternoon/evening hours. Let’s take a closer look in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC