Mostly Milder Conditions

Discussion: We currently have a rather large and powerful (979mb) offshore storm tracking E away from the Mid-Atlantic US. This system represents the Feb 6-8 signal that we casually tracked for about a week, ultimately determining a miss out-to-sea. Had it tracked further NW, we’d have a much different day going on right now. As this system departs, it will place NJ in a temporary cold sector via N/NW winds. You might have noticed the wind kick up today. That’s the 979mb low grabbing the atmosphere as it spins and departs. With that said, tonight will be a colder night but not brutal like Friday-Saturday was.  Tuesday and Wednesday look good with milder temps and mixed skies setting up from a high establishing just W of Bermuda. We’re then on the hook for influence from two lows almost back-to-back. The first should cut into the Great Lakes Thursday-Friday. This could bring rain to NJ starting Thursday afternoon ending Friday morning. The second low should track from the Midwest to somewhere near NJ, possibly with a transfer. Most model guidance is too warm for snow for NJ aside from NWNJ possibly starting snowy Saturday morning while temps are still cold. The Euro sort of threw a curveball today with a snowier scenario longer into Saturday for all of NJ. Likely an outlier in the data but I’m following closely just in case. Otherwise, the weekend looks like more mild temps with Saturday being the most unsettled (rain or snow) and Sunday the nicer day.

Monday (Feb 6) high temperatures are maxing in the 40-55 general range from N to S. Skies are mixed and winds are breezy out of the N/NW. A few gusts here and there. Overnight lows should drop into the 18-30 range from elevations to coasts.

Tuesday (Feb 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the SE, a little breezier right along the SENJ coast. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from elevations to coasts.

Wednesday (Feb 8) high temperatures should reach into the 50s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ could run higher in the 50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds after a few AM sprinkles possibly happen. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (Feb 9) high temperatures should range from lower-40s in the elevations to lower-50s across the coastal plain. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely to start early PM hours. Winds should be out of the SE. Lighter away from the ocean but breezy, even gusty, along the SE coast. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Feb 10) high temperatures should reach near or even above 60 for most locations. Skies should be cloudy with showers around but a few sunny breaks. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should dip into the 30s for most areas.  

An early look at the weekend indicates synoptic storm signal activity for Saturday (most likely rain but watching in case it trends snowier) followed by a clearer Sunday. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™