Discussion: 250mb analysis of the jet stream indicates a general zonal flow across the US for the near future. Tuesday and Wednesday appear rather mild with SW return flow (from the departing high) dominating the pattern. We should then see a colder Thanksgiving Thursday with NW flow returning out of Canada. Friday and Saturday should moderate somewhat making Thursday the coldest day of the week. The most noticeable feature IMO is the upper-level trough from Sunday into next week. The trough axis appears too far to our east to worry about a snow storm. But it does look cold as New Jersey should sit under a strong N/NW jet.
Tuesday (Nov 21) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s for most and possibly even 60 near the SNJ coast. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s for most. NNJ elevations could dip into the 30s while the SNJ coast hangs in the lower-50s.
Wednesday (Nov 22) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to upper-50s NWNJ to SENJ. Skies should start out mostly cloudy with a few AM showers possible but eventually give way to partly sunny conditions. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most.
Thanksgiving (Nov 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with coastal areas hanging near-freezing.
Friday (Nov 24) high temperatures should range from upper-40s to lower-50s NWNJ to SENJ. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s and 40s.
An early look at the weekend indicates a milder Saturday followed by another cold shot that should last from Sunday well into next week. No foreseeable snow storms in the near future. Let’s revisit everything in a few days. Have a great Thanksgiving and please be safe! JC
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Cover Image Credit: Greg Molyneux Photography
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™