More Volatile Temp Swings

Discussion: High pressure will cross over NJ from NW to SE between today (Thursday) and tomorrow morning (Friday). Today/tonight’s chillier conditions are owed to the high’s front-side flow/northerly winds. Temps will hit their bottom tomorrow morning around 6am then rapidly rise to the 50s/60s by tomorrow afternoon due to the high’s backside return flow setting up SW winds. Rain and wind should then move in between Friday night and Saturday morning. We’ll stay in SW flow as the departing high hands the baton to the warm sector of a low tracking from the Great Lakes into SE Canada. Temps will probably spike to their highest between Saturday morning and early afternoon but skies should be cloudy with spotty pre-frontal showers. A cold front/storm front will push through between Saturday morning and early afternoon. Rain could be heavy and winds could be strong/damaging just ahead and along the storm front. Given the time of year and the still-cold mid-levels, I wouldn’t rule out hail. Conditions should then gradually improve through Saturday evening to set up a chillier, but dry and sunny, Sunday. Another high will reinforce this before tracking out to sea by Monday morning…bringing more warm return flow into NJ from the SW. Monday-Thursday should hold mild next week before another frontal system approaches for Thursday PM. Thursday-forward looks chilly but I am not certain if chilly period will last April 8-12 or April 8-15. All depends on a lot of moving parts from N Pole down through SE Canada and NE US. But after that, we should return to the build towards sustained warmth. Not seeing anything large or of high impact over next 1-2 weeks. Just some routine nice-to-nuisance spring conditions surrounding the volatile temperature swings.

Today, Thursday (March 30) is playing out as expected, the coldest day of the week immediately behind the overnight cold front. The abundant higher-angle sun will try to break 50 but the colder air mass with NW flow might hold many areas in the mid-to-upper 40s. The ocean should hold immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts near 40 tonight but the rest of NJ, away from the ocean, are looking at temps near or just below freezing.

Friday (March 31) high temperatures should feel like a different planet vs Thursday. The morning will no doubt begin cold around 6am with many locations below freezing. But by afternoon, temps should range from mid-50s to mid-60s N to S with mixed skies and the chance for an isolated passing shower. Winds should be light out of the S. Clouds should return for overnight hours as rain move in as early as Friday evening. Overnight lows should hang in the low-to-mid 50s.

Saturday (April 1) high temperatures should reach the upper-60s for most, maybe even low-to-mid 70s. The warmest day of the week however very unsettled. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely and strong thunderstorms possible. Most action is targeting morning into early afternoon, but showers could linger into the early evening. Winds should be gusty out of the SW (possibly damaging near/under t-storms). I’ll be following this closely and will update accordingly. Overnight lows should fall to the upper-30s/lower-40s range as light-to-breezy NW winds set up.

Sunday (April 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most NJ areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to near-30 for most areas. ECNJ/SENJ coasts could hang closer to 40.

An early look at next week indicates a milder Monday-Thursday (60s and 70s) with various conditions (from nice to nuisance). But then the April 8 to at least April 12, possibly 15^th looks chillier with highs only hitting 50s. The 12-15 is still very uncertain and could go either way. But after that chilly period, we’ll likely move into 60s or better conditions for most days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC