Discussion: The system that brought rain and wind last night through this morning is well offshore. We now turn W to an approaching cold front that’s still attached to an occluding low over the great lakes.
This front should slowly push through NJ between Thursday morning and Thursday evening with enhancement from a secondary surface low. As the primary lakes low further occludes, the secondary low should form where the new warm front meets the old cold front. This currently looks to put the best thunderstorm dynamics to the S of NJ in the general ~OBX region.
New Jersey is looking at mostly a frontal precipitation event but with possible embedded boomers. Again, weaker thunderstorms than what the S Mid-Atlantic US should see, but certainly a decent chance of embedded storms. Otherwise, winds look light-to-moderate tomorrow.
It looks like NNJ is favored for the most rainfall. Model guidance is suggesting 1.5 inches in NNJ ranging down to a half-inch in SNJ. The could start as early as sunrise and end as late as sunset on Thursday.
After Thursday, we improve but an upper-level low and trough are expected to swing through for the weekend making it slightly unsettled. A lower geopotential atmosphere with enough lifting to generate rain…but isolated not widespread.
Next week is still looking mild and dry for Tuesday (April 12) through Thursday or Friday. Then the cooler pattern could return for the weekend and possibly the rest of April. That is…periods of transient warmth intermittent with prolonged cold. It’s still kind of early to buy anything beyond next week’s warmth but current long-range guidance suggests this.
In English: The rest of today looks drier but clouds slow to clear. More rain moves in tomorrow morning, possibly some boomers, and clears out by tomorrow night. Another rainy day. The weekend looks mixed with mostly clouds but some sun and isolated showers possible at any time. Today through this weekend should maintain the colder feel. Next week looks warm and nice but that might only last 3-4 days before we go back to cooler pattern. I’ll have the detailed weekend outlook posted tomorrow. Be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™