Discussion: I know many are focused on the potential snowfall this coming Tuesday (Jan 16) but I wanted to squeeze in a weekend outlook including a detailed set of expectations for tomorrow’s (Friday) rain and wind storm. The Tuesday snow potential is still there, well represented on ensemble guidance and flopping around at the surface as expected with a system 5 days away. It will likely remain in this state until tomorrow or maybe Saturday morning when models should tighten up their consensus on event details. So hurry up and wait! For this weekend, we have another Great Lakes Cutter (GLC) with a transfer across NE US/SE Canada. For New Jersey, that means another rain and wind event to kick off this weekend. Let’s break the impacts down:
Precipitation – This system will be a quicker storm than this past Tuesday. Therefore, most of New Jesey is looking at a total storm rainfall of between a half-inch and maybe 1.25 inches. This is manageable however unneeded for current water tables across NJ. Just like Tuesday, some of the NNJ elevations could briefly start wintry before going over to rain like the rest of NJ.
Wind – Tuesday produced wind gusts of 55-65mph across much of CNJ/SNJ with a peak gust of 72mph. Tomorrow night’s system will not be as windy. I expect winds to pick up out of the S through Friday afternoon (gusts in the 15-25mph range), peak around midnight (gusts in the 40-55mph range), and then switch to NW winds Saturday morning (gusts in the 30-40mph range). I think we see a stronger and more prolonged backside NW wind situation with this storm than we did on Tuesday and mainly because of the much colder airmass moving in. With that said, expect NW winds to possibly last until Saturday night/Sunday morning before subsiding.
Coastal Flooding – Again, this is a quick mover with only an onshore flow component expected between Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Peak winds will occur out of the S around midnight which will time with a low tide. This all points towards minor coastal flooding at best, nothing like what some areas saw yesterday morning as estuaries drained into back bays. Again, we have less rain and less winds to worry about with this one.
Timing – Precipitation looks to arrive later Friday evening, after the winds start picking up earlier in the afternoon. Let’s call it between 7-10pm for NJ see first drops. Rainfall should then spread into all of NJ by midnight and taper off by sunrise Saturday morning.
In English: Another rain and windstorm is expected between Friday evening (tomorrow night) and Saturday morning. Not as bad as Tuesday night was but still disruptive to any outdoor and/or travel interests (mostly just delays and slow-going). Just the normal safety hazards that surround run-of-mill rain and wind. I wouldn’t call this one a dangerous windstorm like the other day. This system will then usher in much colder air behind it. Saturday might start in the 40s/50s just after midnight (which will display as the Saturday high on your automated app forecasts). Reality will be that temps will then drop, even through peak sunny afternoon hours, and especially after sundown. NJ could start near-60 at 1am and fall to below freezing by midnight. Sunday-forward through much of next week then looks cold. High temps in the 30s, maybe some locations staying below freezing for a high, and lows well below freezing leading into the potential snow on Tuesday. Tomorrow I will have a much more detailed article out about Tuesday. For now, let’s focus on the rain and wind event tomorrow night. Have a great rest of your Thursday and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™