More Mixed Conditions (May 10-12)

Discussion: Upper-level ridging should depart the area by Friday night/Saturday morning. For Friday PM hours we’re looking at a pre-frontal trough and cold front for lifting mechanisms with a late-evening lull expected between. NNJ is more favored than SNJ for downpours and thunderstorms. Severe criteria is possible but likely isolated. Saturday and Sunday should feature flat zonal upper-level flow. Saturday looks like the better day. Mother’s Day (Sunday) should feature a strong easterly fetch off the ocean with high pressure to the N and a coastal low passing offshore. So at the very least Sunday looks cool and cloudy. If the coastal passes close enough to NJ then rain is possible. The shorter-range models are more enthused about rain but an offshore miss is very plausible. I’ll have my umbrella handy in-case. Upper-level heights then lower to start next week. This should keep it cooler for Monday through at least Wednesday. Much improvement is expected by the end of the week with hopefully the long train of synoptic activity ending.

Friday (May 10) high temperatures should break into the 70s for many. NNJ elevations and immediate coastal areas could hang in the mid-to-upper 60s. WCNJ/SWNJ could flirt with breaking 80. Skies should start partly-to-mostly sunny but periods of rain and thunderstorms are possible during PM hours. Looks like two waves rain and storm potential…one during late-afternoon/early-evening and then another overnight. Winds should be breezy at times out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.

Saturday (May 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas with a few scattered spots breaking into the 60s. Skies should be mostly sunny for the northern 2/3 of NJ. SNJ is subject to more cloud coverage and maybe even a passing isolated shower in extreme SNJ. Winds should be light out of the N/NW. Overnight lows should range from 40s to 50s NNJ to SNJ.

Sunday (May 12) high temperatures should reach the upper-50s/lower-60s for most. Typical warmer spots in WCNJ/SWNJ could flirt with 70. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain possible. Winds should be off the ocean, lighter for interior areas and breezy/gusty for immediate coastal areas. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates the wet pattern finally starting to break down. Temperatures should begin cool and transition to seasonably-average by the end of the week.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC