Discussion: A shallow but sharp trough will swing through the region for the first half of the week. NJ will see SW flow aloft for Monday into Tuesday then NW flow aloft for Wednesday into Thursday. By Friday it’s back to W flow aloft. 500mb height anomalies and flow seem rather zonal despite the slight early-week trough disruption. For that reason the warmer days (Mon-Tues and Friday through the weekend) look humid and unsettled with cooler air aloft capable of fueling diurnal surface heat convection. So warm, humid and stormy on those days. The period from Tuesday night through Friday morning looks like the most amount of humidity relief we’ve seen in a long time but there are caveats. NWNJ and SENJ should behave much differently in dew point temperature values (which directly correlate with humidity). NWNJ might dip into dews in the 40s while SENJ might hang with dews in the 60s. Most of NJ between should see dews in the 50s. It’s all still less than the relentless 70+ dews many have become used since just after the 4th of July period. I just don’t want anyone in extreme SNJ/SENJ confused where the relief is. But for at least NWNJ and likely much of SWNJ/CNJ/NENJ, this Tuesday night through Friday morning might almost trigger the pumpkin-spiced latte cravings. I’m then anticipating a full blown “back to school bus stop feeling” cold front by the end of August. Current long range guidance is suggesting ~Aug 25 but we’ll fine tune as we closer approach.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Monday (Aug 17) high temperatures should reach near 80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few isolated showers and thunderstorms around for PM hours. Humidity should be known but not horrendous. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s from elevations to sea.
Tuesday (Aug 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with dropping humidity. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to upper-60s from elevations to sea.
Wednesday (Aug 19) high temperatures should reach near-80. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Lower dew points (humidity) should move into all of NJ except maybe extreme SNJ/SENJ. Cannot rule out a rogue shower/thunderstorm chance mainly during afternoon hours. Most of the day should be okay though for most. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to upper-60s from elevations to sea.
Thursday (Aug 20) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most, maybe low-80s away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and a pleasant feel. Humidity should be much lower for most of the state. Places like Cape May and the immediate SENJ/ECNJ coast will hang onto higher humidity but still feel pleasant compared to recent times. NWNJ elevations should see the driest air mass. Areas between should still see plenty of relief. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to sea.
Friday (Aug 21) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few showers and thunderstorms around. A more humid feel should begin transitioning in from the SW. Winds should be very light in any direction. Overnight lows should range from near-60 to near-70 from elevations to sea.
An early look at the weekend indicates warm, humid, and unsettled conditions. Looks like highs in the 80s with heat indices into the 90s. Right now it looks like mostly sun and clouds with showers and thunderstorms around either isolated or scattered. The tropics are becoming active, right on time, but no current threats to NJ. Let’s take another look in a few days.
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC