More Excellent Spring Conditions

Discussion: The upper jet pattern this week looks meridional but progressive with an overall W/NW flow aloft. We’ll see the tip of a trough move through the region Wednesday-Thursday then an upper-low directly over NJ Saturday-Sunday. During these periods, temps should be cooler with unsettled conditions. We’re at the point now where cooler only means 60s not 50s during the day, so still very nice especially in direct sunshine/afternoon hours. Chilly nights though. Before the trough tip moves in Wednesday, today (Monday) and tomorrow (Tuesday) look nice and warm with Tuesday likely the warmest day of the week (80s). We should return back to the 70s Friday and Saturday before the upper-low moves in Saturday night through Sunday. The cool down/front Tuesday PM looks mostly dry aside from some afternoon-evening showers mainly across CNJ/SNJ. The weekend frontal passage currently looks like the rainiest (probably stormiest) period of the week. Right now it looks like a Saturday afternoon-evening stormfront. Furthermore, this means a thinner strip of rain and storms with a great Saturday leading up to it and quickly improving conditions behind such for Sunday. So a warm and sunny Monday-Tuesday, a cooler Wednesday and Thursday, a warmer Friday into Saturday, rainy/stormy Saturday afternoon-evening, then beautiful Sunday.

Monday (May 15) high temperatures, as of right now (Monday afternoon), have maxed in the low-to-mid 70s for most New Jersey locations with immediate coastal areas hanging in the 60s. A beautiful day with ample sun and light W/NW breeze. Overnight lows should range from 45-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (May 16) high temperatures should reach into the lower-80s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should hang near-70. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds during the day. An isolated shower is possible during afternoon-evening hours. Winds should be breezy out of the W/SW. The drier air and wind could enhance fire risk. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Wednesday (May 17) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most NJ areas. Skies should be clear and sunny, which should feel nice especially in the afternoon, but a stiff W/NW breeze could make it feel more refreshing than mild. Overnight lows should range from 35-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts—presenting a strong frost case for N and W of I-95 and even a flirt with freeze conditions for the highest elevations.

Thursday (May 18) high temperatures should reach into the 60s again with plenty of sunshine. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Friday (May 19) high temperatures should push back into the 70s for most NJ locations with immediate coastal areas hanging in the 60s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SE. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates mild temperatures in the 70s but cloudy and possibly unsettled. We knew last week that a frontal system was possible for this coming weekend but there is still uncertainty on exact timing and expected intensity. It’s currently targeting Saturday afternoon-evening. Will have to revisit in a few days. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

Premium Services

KABOOM Club offers inside info forecast discussion, your questions answered, and early storm impact maps (ahead of the public). At a buck per month, it’s an extremely feasible way to show support.

My Pocket Meteorologist (MPM), in partnership with EPAWA Weather Consulting, offers professional/commercial interests, whose businesses depend on outdoor weather conditions (snow plowing, landscaping, construction, etc.), with hyper-local text message alerts/forecasts and access to the MPM premium forum—the most comprehensive and technical forecast discussion available for PA and NJ.

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™