This week should be cool and wet with warmer and drier hopes for the weekend. Let’s break it down…
Discussion: 500mb heights look to stay below-average over the Mid-Atlantic US through the June 12/13 period. An upper-level low within the broad longwave trough/connection should keep the region cool and wet from Monday through at least Wednesday night, possibly into Thursday. With lower heights, it’s so easy for weak upward motion to produce showers. The sun angle is high and destabilizes the profile with solar surface heating beneath the cold air aloft. This is the pattern we’ve been in and will stay in through this week. A ridge will then build for the period starting around June 12/13 which should end the rainy pattern. This should take us into the hot and humid territory rather quickly.
Monday (June 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s for most.
Tuesday (June 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with scattered showers. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide.
Wednesday (June 7) high temperatures should reach into the lower-60s statewide. Skies should show some improvement but isolated-to-scattered showers are still possible. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s statewide and possibly even the 40s for NNJ elevations.
Thursday (June 8) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with only a small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most.
Friday (June 9) high temperatures should reach into the 70s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide.
An early look at the weekend indicates mostly sunny conditions however afternoon/early-evening thunderstorms are possible, the kind of short duration pop-ups on a mostly nice day. Temperatures look warmer with highs in the upper-70s/lower-80s. Early heat wave signs are starting to show for the June 12/13 period and beyond. Let’s revisit all of this in a few days for the weekend outlook. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™