Discussion: The pattern from now through about April 12 looks very similar due to a stubborn jet pattern with an active stream of disturbances. This should force a trough pattern for the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic US keeping temperatures slightly below-average with unsettled conditions. After a chilly start Monday morning we’re looking at highs in the 50s and lows in the 40-45 range almost all week. Wednesday night into Thursday looks like the warmest part of the week but that’s not saying much. That’s when a warm sector should nose into at least SNJ. The first synoptic rain disturbance is Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM and then again on Thursday. Then the theme of spring showers in the 50s continues for the weekend. It looks like a ridge will finally setup and establish over the E US starting April 12 which would usher in a much milder pattern.
Monday (April 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-50s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.
Tuesday (April 5) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely, especially for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should dip to the 45-50 range.
Wednesday (April 6) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas. Perhaps a few spots breaking 60 across CNJ/SNJ. Skies should start mostly cloudy with some lingering rain showers around during morning hours. Afternoon-evening should improve with just sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should again dip into the 45-50 range.
Thursday (April 7) high temperatures should reach the mid 50s for most areas, maybe lower-60s for some. Skies should be mostly cloudy with more rain possible, maybe thunderstorms. Winds should remain light-to-breezy off the ocean with overnight lows again pinned in the 45-50 range. Rain should wrap up in the evening.
Friday (April 8) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds along with passing isolated-to-scattered showers possible. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40-45 range.
An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same. Highs in the 50-60 range and lows in the 40-45 range. Mixed skies including sun, clouds, and passing spring showers. Sustainable warmth is not expected until April 12 and after. Hang in there everyone! Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™