Monday-Friday Outlook (July 3-7)

Conditions this week are looking pretty run-of-mill for summer. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: A strong ridge should eventually develop in the W US. This should prevent the E US from scorching above average this week. We might even fall a few degrees below-average for July…but still nice for summer. We have a few weak waves of low pressure that should move through at the surface to our S. This might keep CNJ/SNJ somewhat unsettled but high pressure to our N should fight hard to keep things in check. Ocean temperatures are below average right now after a prolonged period of W/SW flow. Warmer water collects at the surface of the ocean due to less density. The W/SW flow blows it away from the coast and cooler water rises to take its place. You might have heard this referred to as up-welling. We need E/SE flow to warm our beach waters up. We also have an area of tropical investigation (Invest 94L) which should actually develop and move towards the east coast in the next week or so. I’m highly suspect of east coast impact however due to the aforementioned sea surface temperatures. Perhaps we see some increased surf/rip but chances are the system will re-curve out to sea. Let’s monitor for now without hype or too much speculation.

Monday (July 3) high temperatures should break 90 away from the ocean. NNJ elevations and coastal regions should hang in the 80s. Skies should be mostly sunny with humidity not too-too bad. Let’s allow a small chance of an isolated/scattered shower or thunderstorm during afternoon/evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide, possibly upper-50s for NNJ elevations.

Tuesday (July 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Coastal regions could hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny with noticeably reduced humidity. Fireworks time should be okay for most. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide, possibly the upper-50s for NNJ elevations. The drier feel should make it feel cooler.

Wednesday (July 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Coastal regions could hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny with a returning humidity. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide, possibly the upper-50s for NNJ elevations.

Thursday (July 6) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Coastal regions could hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with AM showers possible. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.

Friday (July 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most. Coastal regions could hang in the upper-70s. Skies should be partly sunny with a few showers and thunderstorms around, especially during afternoon/early-evening hours. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most. Coastal regions could hang around 70 is the flow is a little more to the S than SE.

An early look at the weekend indicates more highs in the lower-80s with a few showers and thunderstorms around. We should continue to run a few degrees cooler than average for July. Everyone have a great holiday and week. Please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™