Mixed Weather Expected (Sept 1-4)

Today and Monday seem like the better days of the holiday weekend. Let’s break it down…

Discussion: High pressure has hold today but will depart into the Atlantic Ocean just ahead of Harvey’s remnants. Such remnants will float through from SW to NE between Saturday morning and Sunday morning. Conditions should then improve through Sunday and especially for Monday.

Tropics Discussion: Irma is a big deal now and needs to be watched. She should be approaching the NE Caribbean region on Tuesday. Until then US impacts are very speculative. Only then will I have a better handle on the upper-level physics that will ultimately transition Irma from the tropical E flow to the mid-latitude W flow. All these Cape Verde systems eventually want to curve that way (northward). It’s just a question of exact ridge and trough positioning to better understand the hurricane’s steering currents. Right now, Irma is a category 3 major hurricane and is looking very healthy. I will continue to monitor daily. 

Friday (Sept 1) high temperatures should struggle to just break 70 in CNJ and SNJ. NNJ might hang in the upper-60s. Skies should be mostly sunny with just a few friendly clouds around. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall into 50s for most and even 40s for some (interior/elevations).

Saturday (Sept 2) high temperatures should likely stay in the 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rain likely. Rainfall should start in SNJ first (in the morning) and spread northward into CNJ and ultimately NNJ through the afternoon. I don’t expect an all-day downpour, likely periods of on-and-off rainfall. Winds should be light out of the E for areas away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should see stronger winds out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide as unsettled conditions persist into Sunday morning.

Sunday (Sept 3) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most. Parts of CNJ/SNJ might flirt with 80. Skies should start cloudy and possibly rainy but gradually improve to partly sunny skies. Rainfall should shut off between mid-to-late morning for most with clouds clearing by early-to-late afternoon. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s for most. NNJ elevations might flirt with the 40s.

Monday (Sept 4) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most, possibly the mid-to-upper 50s for NNJ elevations.

An early look at next week indicates warmer temperatures lasting until a mid-week cold front. The frontal passage could bring some rain in the Wednesday-Thursday period but should result in a cooler period afterwards heading into the weekend. If Irma is going to take a run at our area, it would be in the September 10-12-ish window. I’m monitoring Irma very closely. Her track beyond the NE Caribbean region is still uncertain. She’ll be approaching that NE Caribbean region by Tuesday which is when I will have a much better idea of Irma’s future. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC