Conditions should generally improve this week after a cloudy and cooler start. Let’s break it down…
Discussion: From the top down, the 250mb jet looks to stay within New Jersey proximity this week. If it was well to our N, we’d be baking in a ridge. If it was well to our S, we’d be cold in a trough. Instead we’ll be under it which typically produces small temperature swings centered around average temperatures. Applying that to this week, we’re likely looking at mid-70s on average (maybe lower-80s for interior CNJ/SNJ and upper-60s/lower-70s for coastal regions). Stepping down to the 500mb level, heights should start out average early in the week and fall towards the end of the week. This doesn’t guaranteed showers and thunderstorms but it allows an environment for them to build more easily. This shouldn’t affect us until closer to the weekend. At the surface, a few weak disturbances should make Tuesday through Wednesday morning the best possibilities for isolated/scattered precipitation. A quick passing area of high pressure should allow for a drier and sunnier Wednesday afternoon through Friday (instability-driven isolated pop-ups aside). Right now, Sunday looks like the better day of the weekend. A very wet and slow frontal passage is currently modeled for Saturday but let’s revisit exact weekend timing in a few days.
Tuesday (May 30) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s statewide. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a few showers in the area. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-50s/lower-60s statewide.
Wednesday (May 31) high temperatures should reach well into the 70s for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ could break into the lower-80s. Coastal regions could remain slightly cooler but could still break 70. Skies should gradually improve from early morning hours through afternoon/evening hours. Just a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most. Coastal regions could hang in the lower-60s.
Thursday (June 1) high temperatures should reach into the 70s statewide. CNJ/SNJ could again flirt with reaching/breaking 80. Skies should be mostly sunny and dry. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most. Coastal regions could again hang in the lower-60s.
Friday (June 2) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for CNJ/SNJ. NNJ and coastal areas should at least push into the 70s. Regardless, Friday looks like the warmest day of the week overall. Skies should be partly sunny with a small chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms. Will have to watch instability and or sea breezes. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s statewide.
An early look at the weekend indicates a slow moving front on Saturday which typically means wet conditions. Sunday currently looks like the winner as the front should be through with sunnier/crisp conditions in its wake. Let’s take a closer look at the upcoming weekend on Thursday. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™