Mixed Weather Expected (Jan 15-17)

The weekend starts mild and rainy but ends cold with some light snow possible heading into Monday. Let’s break it down.

Friday (Jan 15) high temperatures should range from 45-50 (NNJ elevations to the SNJ coast). The day might start with more sun than clouds but eventually cloud coverage will increase leading into the evening. Winds should be light out of the S/SW during the day. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s (NNJ elevations to the SNJ coast). Rain and wind are likely overnight into Saturday as the coastal storm passes by.

Coastal Storm Discussion: A sub-990mb coastal low will be tracking northwestward just off the coast Friday night into Saturday. This will create a period of heavy rain and high winds during the overnight hours. Winds should first start out of the E/SE and then slowly change in counterclockwise motion until out of the N. During the initial easterly component, minor coastal flooding is possible especially for barrier islands during high tide(s). Once the low is to our dead-east, we’ll then feel strong northerly winds. There is only a small chance of rain changing over to snow before the tail-end of precipitation pulls away and likely only for NNJ elevations. Behind the storm lies the returning cold.

Saturday (Jan 16) high temperatures should range from 45-50 (NNJ elevations to the SNJ coast). The morning should start cloudy, rainy and windy as the coastal storm pulls away. There’s a good chance we see the sun before it sets. Winds should be light to breezy out of the NW, especially after clearing. Overnight low should fall into the 20s/30s.

Sunday (Jan 17) high temperatures should range from upper-20s to upper-30s (NNJ elevations to the SNJ coast). Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun, clouds and possibly light snow showers. There is a greater chance for that during evening/overnight hours into Monday. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the teens/20s.

An early look at next week indicates average temperatures for January (cold) with mostly sun and some clouds. Model guidance continues to troll us all for the ~January 23 period as they have for the last few systems. Long-range analysis and discussion only for now. Models have been horrible outside of the mid-range forecasting period (3-6 days) so there is no sense in anything but watching for now.

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Have a great weekend and be safe! JC

Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™