Precipitation from another Great Lakes storm will collide into a high pressure system passing through the NE US early this week. The high pressure interaction should help split and possibly transfer the low pressure E of Cape Cod before steaming further out into the Atlantic Ocean. This could lead to wintry conditions for parts of NNJ Tuesday morning while the rest of the state is likely held to just rain.
We have a cold front coming through overnight which will set the stage for a colder Monday. Only parts of NNJ will have enough cold air around at the surface to warrant the wintry condition concern into Tuesday morning. Warmer air will advect at the middle levels first before eroding the surface cold. Everyone should eventually go over to plain rain. The temperature profile favors freezing rain as slightly more of a concern than snow for the NNJ areas. For all snow, you would have to go northward into NY state and New England. Most lower elevations of New Jersey are likely just looking at all rain with NNJ eventually switching over. Regardless, it could make for an interesting rush hour for any areas of NNJ that haven’t yet changed over. Let’s break the week down:
Monday (Dec 28) high temperatures should range from upper-30s for NNJ elevations to mid-40s for the rest of New Jersey. Most of the day should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds but overcast skies should develop heading into sunset. Winds should be light out of the NE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-20s for NNJ elevations and 30s/40s for the rest of the state.
Spotty precipitation could start between evening hours and midnight but most should fall during AM hours of Tuesday. The surface and 850mb lines of freezing will have to be monitored during live-casting to determine how far south the surface wintry conditions extend. Right now, I’d go with ~I-78 and with any luck, the changeover to rain will happen before rush hour rather than after. We so have to consider the latter however.
Tuesday (Dec 29) high temperatures should range from lower-40s for NNJ elevations to mid-60s at the coast. Rain (possibly still wintry conditions for parts of NNJ but most likely cold rain) should eventually taper off by early afternoon. Winds should be light out of the NE for most but possibly breezier out of the SW if S of the frontal boundary. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s and 40s with isolated showers possible.
Wednesday (Dec 30) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s for NNJ elevations and mid-50s for the rest of New Jersey. Skies should be cloudier for SNJ than NNJ and even feature some light rain showers. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s and 40s.
Thursday (Dec 31) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s for NNJ elevations and mid-50s for the rest of New Jersey. Any AM rain showers (SNJ favored over NNJ) should clear by noon-ish. Skies should then feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s and 30s.
Friday (Jan 1) high temperatures should reach the upper-30s for NNJ elevations and mid-40s for the rest of New Jersey. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 20s and 30s.
An early look at the weekend indicates temperatures more seasonal for New Jersey (highs in 30s/40s lows in 20s/30s). As of right now skies look sunny but let’s revisit mid-week.
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I’ll be watching the radar tomorrow night into Tuesday. Have a great week and be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC