Mixed Weather Expected (Dec 23-25)

We’re looking at some rain Saturday morning-afternoon (possible snow/mix for some). Otherwise Saturday night through all of Sunday looks okay. Let’s break it down…

Disco: High pressure should have control of our region for most of Friday. That should keep it dry and slightly above-average in temperature. A low pressure disturbance in the Central US will then jump into the northern stream in Canada. This should shove a frontal precipitation shield through the Eastern US from W to E Saturday morning. Elevations of NWNJ would have the best chance to see a wintry mix and/or snow, especially at the onset of precipitation earlier Saturday AM. Chances of wintry precipitation would then decrease from NWNJ down through SENJ, especially as the day warms. Most of New Jersey (lower 2/3) should expect a cold rain and I wouldn’t expect anything more than a mix for the northern 1/3. Precipitation should end for everyone from NW to SE between late morning and early afternoon on Saturday. We should then dry out from Saturday night through Tuesday. Next week looks interesting. A system will cut into the Great Lakes while high pressure tries to park to our NE. That could create unsettled conditions for us as cold tries to hang on but temperatures should eventually rise in the warm sector of the lakes cutter. After that, long range model guidance is suggesting the colder pattern returning and lasting longer to start January. Active too.

Friday (Dec 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s statewide. Skies should start on the sunny side but eventually cloud up towards evening hours. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-20s for NNJ elevations and 30s for the rest of NJ. Precipitation is not expected to start until after midnight.

Saturday (Dec 24) high temperatures should eventually reach ~40 in NNJ and ~50 in SNJ by the afternoon. The wintry potential exists for NNJ (especially NWNJ) during early Saturday AM hours of precipitation while temperatures are still colder. A wintry mix for NWNJ with little-to-no snow accumulation is the most rational call right now before becoming too warm for snow by late morning/afternoon. I’ll be watching in case live obs indicates a colder scenario but we’re pretty close at this point. NENJ, CNJ and SNJ should expect periods of non-frozen precipitation. Everything should end as rain between late-morning and afternoon hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall back below freezing. Most rainfall on roads and concrete surfaces should evaporate from winds before temps drop. But anything that does not will likely freeze so watch out for ice.

Sunday (Dec 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall below freezing for most. Coastal regions could hang in the mid-30s.

An early look at next week indicates slightly above-average temperatures Monday through Thursday with some rain. We should then return to colder temperatures Friday and beyond with conditions becoming more favorable for Mid-Atlantic US snowfall.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™