Saturday Update (12:30pm 2/23/2019): Light to moderate rain should begin this evening by (6pm for SNJ, 8pm for CNJ, 9pm for NNJ). A break is then expected between about midnight and 4am tomorrow morning. A heavier batch of rain should then move through all of NJ between 4am and noon tomorrow. There’s a small chance of rumbles in the heavier stuff tomorrow morning. Gusty winds, capable of producing power outages, should pick up tomorrow afternoon and last overnight into Monday. I’ll have the Monday-Friday outlook posted tomorrow evening. Have a great rest of your Saturday and be safe! JC
Discussion: The strong upper-level jet stream will remain nearby as the E US ridge flexes through early Sunday morning. By Sunday evening lower 500mb geopotential heights should move in with the disturbance and then keep things zonal through next week. Most of our weather this weekend and into Monday will be secondary effects from a very strong Great Lakes storm system. We’re talking about a sub-980mb low tracking over the Great Lakes into Canada. That’s going to generate a widespread wind field easily capable of reaching NJ. The warm front should approach on Saturday evening with the cold front pushing through Sunday evening. This gives NJ a general rainy period between Saturday afternoon/evening and Monday afternoon/evening. This warm-sectors most of Sunday (a warm day) between the warm and cold front. The cold front should then push through on a mission Sunday night into Monday morning with breezy/gusty winds out of the W/NW. I recommend securing loose outdoor stuff and small human beings. We might even see some wind warnings if the stronger winds aloft show signs of reaching down to the surface. Next week looks like a mild start with a storm signal for Wednesday-Thursday (Feb 27-28). Right now it looks too warm for snow and somewhat weak. For a colder and stronger impact to NJ the N stream would have to slow down and interact more with the southern stream. It’s possible but right now it is not probable. I’ll let you know if that changes.
Friday (Feb 22) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from lower-20s to lower-30s NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (Feb 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-40s for most. Skies should start at least partly cloudy and gradually increase in cloud coverage. Rain should likely start later in the afternoon/evening and lasting through overnight hours. Winds should be light out of the SE as rain starts. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most.
Sunday (Feb 24) high temperatures should reach well into the 50s statewide. Some spots could break into the 60s. Skies should start mostly cloudy and wet with rainfall ending by afternoon/evening hours. Conditions should improve from late-afternoon-forward. Winds should start breezy out of the SW but transition to the W/NW by afternoon if not earlier. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most as breezy/gusty winds persist into Monday.
An early look at next week indicates breezy/gusty winds subsiding by Monday afternoon. A storm signal exists for the Wednesday-Thursday period but currently it looks on the warmer and unorganized side. If this trends colder or stronger then we’ll talk about it on Sunday. Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Our premium services go even further above and beyond at the hyperlocal level. Have a great rest of your Wednesday and please be safe! JC
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™