Discussion: The upper jet should sit right over NJ this week with lower heights dominating the pattern. This will keep an unsettled atmosphere over NJ, especially at the start of the week and later towards the weekend. Tuesday through Thursday seems like the best stretch of weather with drier conditions expected behind a cold front and in front of the next warm front. So a low is currently tracking through the Great Lakes (as of 1130pm Sunday night) and will push into SE Canada tomorrow (Monday). We’re going to see our first round of thunderstorms around or just before dawn Monday. This first stormfront should favor NWNJ and possibly miss SENJ altogether. Once that is through, expect a sunny but swampy Monday morning through evening. S winds and dews of 70+ ought to make it feel quite tropical. Then the second stormfront pushes through later Monday night into Tuesday morning…might approach WNJ as early as 8pm but should clear ENJ by mid-to-late Tuesday morning. This is likely the most concerning stormfront regarding severe potential mainly for wind damage whether straight line or tornadic. And it looks to cover more of SNJ than the early morning stormfront. Once that second stormfront is through (by Tuesday morning), the Tuesday-Thursday stretch looks much better with lower dews and NW quadrant winds. Humidity and rain/storm chances then return by Thursday night/Friday morning to set up an average unsettled August summer weekend in NJ.
Monday (Aug 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and a very humid feel. Rain and thunderstorms are likely with NWNJ favored over SENJ but all on the hook for at least isolated activity. Looks like two rounds…one early AM (closer to sunrise) and another later towards overnight. Both storm fronts could feature severe criteria. But most of the day (between morning and nighttime activity) should just be swampy with a tropical sunny feel with iso stuff possible here and there. Winds should be light out of the S/SE (unless under or near a storm – then obv. gustier). Overnight lows should only fall to near-70. A muggy night.
Tuesday (Aug 8) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny once any early AM rain/storm activity clears out. Storms could be severe during early AM hours (just after midnight) but once through we should be good for the rest of the day. Humidity should transition to a drier feel by afternoon/evening. Winds should be breezy out of the W/SW (behind the AM stormfront). Overnight lows should fall to the 60s statewide.
Wednesday (Aug 9) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most. Skies should be mostly sunny with a drier feel (lower humidity). Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Thursday (Aug 10) high temperatures should reach the mid-80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds as humidity transitions from lower to higher throughout the day/by evening. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 65-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
Friday (Aug 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun and a humid feel. Showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the SE. Overnight lows should range from 65-70 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.
An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same temperature-wise. Highs in the low-to-mid 80s but a little more unsettled meaning showers and thunderstorms are possible. Not all-day washouts, likely great summer days to start…but the kind of day you want to keep an eye to the sky, especially during late-afternoon/evening hours. Let’s take another look closer to the weekend. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC