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Discussion: The upper-jet will remain N of NJ for the near-future with the exception of a small dip this coming Monday PM-Tuesday PM. 500mb geopotential heights will reflect a ridge over NJ this weekend until that dip, then below-average height anomalies during the dip as a thin/shallow trough swings through. Ridging should then rebuild over the E US from next Wednesday through at least next weekend. This weekend has a ripple though. Normally when the jet is way over NJ and NJ is under a ridge, temperatures are very warm (like this Wed-Fri). An upper-low however is currently (as of Thursday afternoon) over the N Gulf coast and should track toward NJ while decaying into the ridge. This upper-low will provide a cooler upper air mass that should propagate to the surface during this weekend. It will also likely provide showers Saturday afternoon-evening in addition to more clouds than we would like to see mainly from multi-layer marine flow. A cold front should then push through by Monday morning and keep Monday PM through Tuesday PM cooler (highs in 50s lows down to 30s/40s) in its wake. Milder air should then return for next Wednesday-forward as E US ridging rebuilds. So hot and sunny Friday. Mild and cloudy/rainy/stormy Saturday, mild and cloudy Sunday, Rainy/stormy Sunday late night into Monday AM, colder Monday PM through Tuesday PM, then mild again next Wednesday-forward. A solid mix of spring conditions.
Friday (April 14) high temperatures should reach well into the 80s again. Best chances of just breaking 90 are along the W side of NJ. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coasts will likely hold near-70 or possibly lower. Winds should range from light-to-breezy, from NNJ to SNJ, out of the SW. Southern Coastal areas (both SWNJ and SENJ) will take the breeziest winds to the face. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 50s statewide with increasing clouds and a few stray showers around.
Saturday (April 15) high temperatures should reach into the 70s away from the ocean and 60s right along such. Still warm (above-average) but not hot like Wednesday-Friday. Skies should be mixed with a decent amount of clouds and isolated sun pockets. Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 50s for most NJ areas.
Sunday (April 16) high temperatures should range in the 60s. Maybe some spots just hop over 70. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. More of an overcast day. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-50s for most NJ areas with more rain around into Monday morning.
An early look at next week indicates a wet, possibly stormy, start Monday morning (cold front) with a transient cooler period Monday PM through Tuesday PM. Tuesday looks like the coolest day of the week with statewide highs in 50s. Monday and Tuesday nights should be the chilliest nights with temps down to 30-40 NNJ to SNJ. We should then return to the milder spring pattern next Wednesday-forward. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™