Mixed Conditions to Start 2023

Discussion: I’d like to wrap up 2022 here at Weather NJ by wishing everyone a Happy New Year and discussing some future ideas for our weather pattern! Another trip around the sun in Jersey! We started the year in January with a SENJ KABOOM, had a fairly seasonal spring, summer, and early fall, avoided any tropical entanglements during hurricane season, and finished with a volatile pattern. We saw a lobe of the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) break off and deliver one of the coldest Christmas periods in decades. We then snapped back into a milder (current) pattern and can expect 2023 to start on the milder side. Many call this the January thaw. Some argue it’s mother nature snapping back warm after being so cold. Regardless of how you see it, we’re only 10 days into calendar winter and have a long baseball game ahead of us. We’re only just through the first inning. If football is your thing, we have punted old man winter and expect to get the football back around the Jan 6-9 period.  

The coldest and most “Arctic” air is currently near the N Pole and even over into N Asia. Northern N America is filled with what’s called stale cold air. It’s cold enough to snow for most interior/elevations but struggles to chill the lower elevations down below freezing, especially the coastal plain. With this northerly retraction of Arctic air, milder air is allowed to flow off the Pacific into the lower-48, making it challenging to set up an accumulating snow event. The Pacific jet is extremely zonal, extending pretty much from E Asia to California with very little troughs or ridges. That’s where we are now and why we are so mild. It’s a ridge-maker pattern for the E US. It’s a lot of moisture from the Pacific which the W US can really use. It’s ridonkulous snow for the W US elevations. You are probably hearing about record snowfall in the California mountains.

To look for our changes, you can start way upstream near Indonesia with a scientific system known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). Basically, this is a measurement of the best tropical forcing and where it is located between Indonesia and the International Date Line (zones 1-8). This metric has implications downstream for the US trough and ridge pattern. There’s some great information about this in our MPM Premium Forum if you want to learn more. We’re also following the neutralization of the ENSO cycle which also plays a significant role in our (NJ) weather pattern.

So when is the E US going to trough again? According to some long-range teleconnections, both the AO and NAO should transition back to negative between Jan 12-15, correlating with a positive PNA phase. That’s where/when I would look for the wintry pattern, favorable for snowstorm development, to return. Between now and ~Jan 12, we would need a thread the needle situation in a horrible pattern for snowstorm development. There are a few weak signals (Jan 6-7 + Jan 9) but do not hold your breath for these. Even if they tracked perfectly for NJ, and used the extremely localized pools of cold associated with their upper-lows, they would still be moving fast in a progressive flow meaning likely not big accums. Very hit-or-miss type stuff with maybe a 30-50% chance of happening. So, a few low-chance possibilities to track for the end of next week then a return to normalcy for winter the following week with some more favorable indicators for snowstorm development.

In English: Please use caution in the current fog situation. The lower atmosphere is very saturated and warm/moist air keeps pumping in from the SW. Rain should fall on-and-off, mostly light, between now and about midnight (I know, the worst timing for NYE). Expect a mild week with temperatures commonly hitting the 50s and 60s. Sunday and Monday look mild, dry, and sunny. Tuesday-Thursday looks unsettled….nothing heavy but cloudy and in-and-off periods of lighter rain likely. Friday-Saturday (Jan 6-7) is a weak signal I‘m tracking for possible snow but it looks sloppy and unorganized at the moment. Regardless of whatever happens then, it will set up N flow behind it and allow for a colder weekend (Jan 6-8)…not brutal cold like last weekend…but more like avg temperatures for this time of year (highs in 30s/40s lows in 20s/30s). The following week (Jan 9-13) I’ll be looking at the more favorable pattern for snowstorm development to return. So that’s how I see the first half of January 2023 playing out. Please enjoy the last hours of 2022 and again, Happy New Year to all! Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™