Mixed Conditions to Possibly End Crappy Winter Pattern

Discussion: Some light rain is around today along a very weak front attached to a very weak low currently fizzling over the E Great Lakes. This is already on it’s way out and should clear for tonight’s overnight hours (Tuesday). Wednesday looks clear and tranquil, the mildest day of the week. On Thursday, we should have a weak low transferring from the Great Lakes to just off Cape Cod. This should bring rain to NJ for most of the Thursday as a warm front noses through and dries up with the transfer overnight into Friday morning. Friday then looks like a transitional day as colder air trickles back in. 95 and points NW could dip below freezing Friday night while the rest of NJ falls at least into the mid-to-upper 30s. Saturday then looks colder but clear.

There are two synoptic storm signals in light agreement on long-range model guidance. The first is Sunday-Monday (Jan 22-23) which could possibly start wintry for NJ elevations but is currently expected to go over to rain. This signal looks warmer overall but is expected to begin a -AO/-NAO pattern that should last into at least the start of February. The most we can deduce from that is that there will be available cold and blocking over/near Greenland to slow and buckle the jet stream (steering currents of storms). At this point we are not seeing a -EPO/+PNA ridge over the W US which could mean more of a flatter type wave snow rather than a vertical coast climber. But both can produce big snow. So the Jan 22-23 event, even if warmer rain, does look like a pattern changer. The next signal, which I personally like better, is January 25-26 (next Wednesday-Thursday) but let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves. There’s some support today for it on the Euro but I am more interested in the general Greenland block and available cold for now. The signals are going to signal. For now, another tranquil week or so until we finally turn colder with actual snow possibilities next week.

Tuesday (Jan 17) high temperatures are maxing in the low-to-mid 40s for most. Some light rain is around but conditions should improve from late-afternoon forward into overnight. Winds are light and should transition from SW to W overnight as temps bottom in the upper-30s for most areas.

Wednesday (Jan 18) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should fall into the mid-to-upper 30s for most areas.

Thursday (Jan 19) high temperatures should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to coasts. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. About a half-inch of rain is expected throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the SE, perhaps breezier along the SE NJ coast. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Jan 20) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most. A transitional day. Some leftover light rain could linger for AM hours with improvement likely by afternoon-forward. A colder night though as most areas drop into the 30s, some just below freezing.

An early look at the weekend indicates a colder, clearer, and calmer Saturday…highs just into 40s and lows in 20s/30s. Sunday could start nice but rain is expected to move in for PM hours. Next synoptic storm signals I’m monitoring for wintry potential are Jan 22-23 and Jan 25-26. Nothing in-writing yet just signals. See the above discussion for more details. Have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC