Mixed Conditions (Oct 22-25)

Discussion: Nothing crazy to talk about after the recent synoptic coastal storm systems. The upper-levels are barely conversational with transient positive and negative height anomalies in a progressive flow. A frontal passage should bring some rain across the region between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. To be clear it won’t rain that entire period but that’s the general time frame when a few hours of rain will move across NJ from W to E—mainly overnight. We should then dry out for Wednesday through most of Friday. The weekend looks unsettled in general but much better than the washout that’s been advertised on model guidance up until this morning. I am curious to see if the rainy signal will continue to fade for the weekend. I’ll need a few days of data analysis to confirm my suspicion. The next big deal weather-wise should then be a string cold front around the ~Halloween/Nov 1 period.

Tuesday (Oct 22) high temperatures should range from upper-50s to upper-60s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should gradually increase in cloud coverage throughout the day. Rain and possibly thunderstorms are possible especially from late-afternoon and forward. Winds should be light out of the E. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ as rain and storms persist.

Wednesday (Oct 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Rain should end by sunrise if not before. Skies should then be mostly sunny. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Oct 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-60s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Oct 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Rain is possible later in the evening mainly for NNJ. SNJ might escape it. I’ll be following this closely during the week. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates unsettled conditions in general. However it looks much better today than it looked even yesterday. I’m seeing shorter periods of scattered rain rather than a total washout storm system. I’d like to give it another day or two of model guidance and live observation comparison to see if expected conditions improve even further. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC