Mixed Conditions (Oct 12-16)

Discussion: The upper levels appear very zonal for this week. Once the rainy remnants of Delta clear out by Tuesday afternoon (Sunday night through Tuesday morning are wet and breezy), Wednesday and Thursday look seasonably mild and rather uneventful. On Friday we’re looking at a solid frontal passage. A system will track through E Canada and drag an aggressive cold front through to its S over NJ. Rain, even thunderstorms, are possible along the cold front. By Friday night we should feel the cold air mass moving into place which correlates with the expected Mid-Atlantic and NorthEast US trough for this weekend. The cooler conditions should then last into next week.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Monday (Oct 12) high temperatures should range from mid-50s to near-70 from elevations to sea. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be breezy out of the NE. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea.

Tuesday (Oct 13) high temperatures should reach near-70. Skies should start cloudy and rainy but improve for afternoon-forward. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.  

Wednesday (Oct 14) high temperatures should reach near-70 again for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-40 to mid-50s from elevations to sea.   

Thursday (Oct 15) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s. Skies should be mixed with mostly sun and a few clouds. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea.

Friday (Oct 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mixed with rain and thunderstorms possible (SNJ favored over NNJ). Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to near-40 from elevations to sea.  

An early look at the weekend indicates dry and clear but chilly conditions…what most people would consider beautiful for Fall. Highs should struggle to escape the lower-60s. Overnight lows down into the 30s/40s. (NNJ/SNJ).

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™