Discussion: A meridional but progressive upper jet pattern is expected this week. Height anomalies indicate back-and-forth positive and negative as thin and quick moving troughs and ridges try to establish with a cut-off upper level low or two. At the surface we have rain currently (Monday morning) departing ENJ. High pressure, tracking to our N, will provide a cooler Monday-Tuesday off the front-side anti-cyclonic flow followed by another warm up for Wednesday and Thursday via return flow. We’ll then see a disturbance float through from late Wednesday night through much of Thanksgiving Day. The pattern should then remain mild for Friday and Saturday as another disturbance is expected to float through during Saturday PM hours. On Sunday we’ll start dipping and then bottom out Monday-Wednesday for our next cold shot.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Monday (Nov 23) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Rain should end by late-morning with skies slowly improving by afternoon. Winds should be breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should drop into the 30s.
Tuesday (Nov 24) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall to the low-to-mid 30s.
Wednesday (Nov 25) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to sea. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the S. Overnight lows should range from lower-40s to lower-50s as periods of rain move in.
Thursday (Thanksgiving Day – Nov 26) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from ner-40 to near-50 from elevations to sea.
Friday (Nov 27) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s from elevations to sea.
An early look at the weekend indicates a mixed bag of conditions. Highs in the low-to-mid 50s. Lows in the 30s/40s. Slightly unsettled conditions meaning periods of scattered rain possible. A cold front is expected to move through late Sunday night to drop temperatures for Monday into next week. Let’s revisit all of this in a few days. Everyone have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™