Discussion: The 250mb jet looks zonal for the weekend oscillating between just over NJ and just to the N of NJ. On Friday we have a very weak and progressive 500mb trough grazing NJ to the NE. After that above-average 500mb geopotential heights are expected for the remainder of the holiday weekend period. At the lower-levels a cold front should provide rain and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday morning. Thursday night could feature severe thunderstorm criteria based on current sounding parameters. I plan to put an article out tomorrow that focuses on the Thursday PM thunderstorm potential working with the freshest mesodata. Friday daytime through Sunday morning (including all of Saturday) then looks pretty good under drifting high pressure (from NW to SE). We could see some isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms during Sunday PM given the diurnal surface heating potential. Monday is sort of out there at this point time-wise but does appear to be unsettled. Not a washout but unsettled.
Today reached into the 70s for many with the SENJ coast hanging in the 60s. Tonight most areas should dip to near-60 with NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens a little colder in the 50s. Skies should remain dry overnight.
Thursday (May 23) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. Breaking 80 is not off the table for WCNJ/SWNJ. Expect some humidity to build. Early AM showers are possible, maybe a few rumbles, followed by a break. Thunderstorms are possible from late-afternoon through evening hours. Some could reach severe criteria. I’ll have a more detailed article out tomorrow that will feature much more detail based on fresh data. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 60s for most possibly cooler for NNJ elevations and SNJ Pine Barrens.
Friday (May 24) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s for most. WCNJ and SWNJ again have the best shot at climbing over 80. Humidity could linger for AM hours but break with the cold front by late-morning/noonish. Skies should range from partly sunny to mostly sunny NNJ to SNJ. Winds should be breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ.
Saturday (May 25) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. SENJ coastal regions could hang near-70 or in the upper-60s. Skies should feature a mixed bag of sun and clouds—sunnier in SNJ and cloudier in NNJ. Saturday should feel drier humidity-wise. Winds should be light out of the S for most. SENJ coastal regions could see a light SE wind which further supports the lower afternoon high temps. Overnight lows should range from upper-50s to mid-60s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (May 26) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most and possibly even break 90 in areas like WCNJ/SWNJ. Skies should be partly-to-mostly sunny. There should be some humidity but not full-blown hot dishtowel to the face. Isolated-to-scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible but not widespread. We will likely have light winds out of the W/NW for thank for that. Overnight lows should range from mid-50s to mid-60s.
Monday – Memorial Day (May 27) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most maybe mid-80s for WCNJ/SWNJ. Immediate coastal areas could hang in the 70s. Skies should start alright but PM showers and thunderstorms are possible. Winds should be light out of the W/NW for most maybe light out of the E for coastal areas. Overnight lows should range from low-50s to low-60s NNJ to SNJ.
An early look at the rest of next week indicates highs in the 70s/80s with a mixed bag of spring conditions. That includes plenty of sunshine with traditional spring showers and thunderstorms. Let’s take another look on Monday evening. Have a great holiday weekend and please be safe! JC
Download the new free Weather NJ mobile app on Apple and/or Android. It’s the easiest way to never miss Weather NJ content. Our premium services go even further above and beyond at the hyper-local level. Looking for industrial-caliber long-range forecasting data that I personally recommend? Check out WeatherTrends360!
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™