Discussion: We should stay cold and rainy tonight into tomorrow morning as our weak but prolonged disturbance moves through. Tomorrow (Monday) winds should pick up out of the W/NW after late-AM clearing and persist into some of Tuesday. Peak wind gusts should occur during Monday PM hours. Gusts of 40-50mph are possible. A trough of cold air will move through the region between Monday night and Wednesday morning. On Wednesday we’ll moderate a bit as the trough moves out with a weak disturbance likely missing to our S. Behind that, we should turn colder again for the weekend and into next week. There’s a general coastal storm signal in the March 6-7 period (Sunday into Monday) that I haven’t fully dismissed yet but let’s watch it further evolve this week. I’m not that excited about it but it’s there. After that, it looks like some more mild conditions could move in for next week thanks to an E US ridge. Highs in the 60s for at least CNJ/SNJ type stuff.
Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).
Monday (March 1) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s (maybe low-50s for some SNJ spots). Morning rain should give way to clear and gusty conditions out of the W/NW for afternoon through overnight hours. Winds could gust 40-50mph so power outages not off the table. With this W/NW flow I would expect a significant temperature drop through sunset into overnight hours. It could range from teens to 20s, from elevations to sea, by dawn Tuesday morning.
Tuesday (March 2) high temperatures should fail to escape the 30s statewide. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should remain breezy out of the W/NW but not as stiff as Monday afternoon/evening. Overnight lows should range from 20-30 from elevations to sea.
Wednesday (March 3) high temperatures should reach into the lower-50s for most. Extreme SNJ/SENJ might be the coolest region of NJ due to colder flow off the Delaware Bay. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea.
Thursday (March 4) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most, perhaps only mid-40s for elevations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30.
Friday (March 5) high temperatures should range from near-30 to near-40 from elevations to sea. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. SENJ is possibly looking at a wintry mix into Saturday from a close-passing coastal low. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30.
An early look at the weekend indicates rather uneventful conditions. Highs in the 40s. Lows in the 20s/30s. Watching a coastal for Sunday-Monday that is currently a miss. Warm conditions to follow that. Have a great week and please be safe! JC
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Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™