Mixed Conditions (Jan 15-17)

Discussion: The most important feature of our current forecast is the disrupted Pacific jet plowing into the W US. We’re going to see a -EPO/-PNA setup start to take shape. This will allow ridging to occur near Alaska and extreme W US with reciprocating troughing in the W/C US. If you move downstream we will remain in a -AO/-NAO pattern which means cold air available and blocking near Greenland. That leaves the E US between the -EPO/-PNA ridge/trough and the -NAO block. The only thing possible, because of the troughing to our W, is a broad and mild SE US ridge. The most significant impact this would have are temps not as cold and steering currents aligned more W-E maybe even W/NW to E/SE. We’ll still be in a snowstorm supportive pattern but any surface lows would likely track from W to E rather than meridionally up the coast from S/SW to N/NE. The PV split and SSWE did occur. Cold air has been plunged from the N pole into the lower (mid) latitudes. Given the -EPO/-PNA welcoming package, the coldest air will move into W/C US first before propagating eastward towards the E US after. With that said, Jan 17-22 should be the first gear of cold for NJ but still near-average for this time of year (which is cold). A second gear of cold is then expected to move into the NJ area around the Jan 22-23 timeframe which should take conditions below average into February. For now and this weekend, we’re currently in the warm sector of a low running up to a frontal passage Friday night into Saturday morning. Therefore, temps should be as mild as they’re going to be for a while today and tomorrow. The front should then bring rain for most Friday night into Saturday morning (maybe wintry mix for NWNJ elevations). Saturday looks like a day of transition before the colder feel sets in Saturday night and beyond. I can’t believe how active the pattern looks between Jan 20-30. 4 synoptic storm signals with a 5^th building at the end of model guidance. Keep in mind that a storm signal produces temperatures not as cold in the E US. This is another reason why we haven’t plunged into a full-blown Arctic outbreak. That would only lead to storms being suppressed to our S, pipes bursting, and high heating bills. But it will be cold enough for snow if a storm tracks right. Nothing further to report at this time other than the pattern remains snowstorm supportive and we need to watch each storm signal through the rest of January.

Note: Unless specifically mentioned by location (Example: NNJ elevations, SENJ immediate coast, Interior CNJ/SNJ, etc.) assume the following forecast language is statewide for New Jersey. When I say “from elevations to sea” I mean from NWNJ mountains spreading down to immediate ECNJ/SNJ coastal areas. Directions are shortened (N = North, S = South, W/SW = West/SouthWest, etc.).

Friday (Jan 15) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 40s for most areas. Some SNJ locations might break 50. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a few passing isolated showers possible. Winds should be light out of the E during the day but then switch and pickup out of the SW a bit. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s but stay above freezing for all except the NWNJ elevations. A period of overnight rain is expected for most. The NWNJ elevations might mix wintry at times but little to no accumulation is expected.

Saturday (Jan 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. AM hours should be reserved for the overnight rain (possibly snow/mix for NWNJ elevations) to clear out. Conditions should improve for PM hours. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most with SNJ/SENJ hanging closer to 30.

Sunday (Jan 17) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from near-20 to near-30 from elevations to sea.

An early look at next week indicates highs likely hanging in the 30s with lows below freezing statewide. Colder than it has been but nothing crazy. Near average for January which is cold. Even colder air is expected mid-to-late week. There are multiple storm signals I am tracking between Jan 20-30 but nothing is currently advertised as a NJ hit yet. A favorable snowstorm supporting pattern continues with nothing coming into fruition yet. I’ll be watching it. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC