Mixed Conditions Expected (Feb 12-16)

Discussion: Our washout rain system is just about finished. A slow-to-exit boundary likely means more rainfall along and SE of I-95 through mid-to-late morning on Monday. After that we’re dry and relatively mild until about Thursday. Between Thursday and Friday we’ll be looking at a classic Norwegian Cyclone Model delivering a 1+2 punch of rain, first along the warm front and then followed closely by a cold front. That will then set the stage for a colder and drier weekend before temperatures likely moderate milder for next week.

Monday (Feb 12) high temperatures should range from 40 to 50 NNJ to SNJ. Skies should transition from mostly cloudy in the morning to partly sunny by late-afternoon. Additional rainfall is possible, especially along and SE of I-95, through about noon. Winds should be light out of the NW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ. With ample time for winds to evaporate most street moisture, there is less concern for a rapid freeze than recent events.

Tuesday (Feb 13) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to lower-40s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the 20s for most.

Wednesday (Feb 14) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s statewide. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the SW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.

Thursday (Feb 15) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most. Interior CNJ/SNJ might even take a run at mid-60s. Skies should be mostly cloudy. Periods of rainfall are possible. Winds should be light out of the S/SW, perhaps a little breezier in for SNJ (especially the coast). Overnight lows should range from 40-50 NNJ to SNJ.

Friday (Feb 16) high temperatures should range from mid-40s to mid-50s NNJ to SNJ. Skies should be partly sunny with a small chance of rain showers. Winds should be breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from teens to 20s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder and drier conditions on the tail of expected Thursday-Friday rainfall. Let’s take another look in a few days.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™