Mixed Conditions Expected

Discussion: The upper jet (250mb) should rage a bit, from SW to NE, over the Mid-Atlantic US this weekend. 500mb analysis indicates a deep upper-low tracking from the Great Lakes into SE Canada but in a very progressive trough with positive tilt. This will coincide with a surface low, also tracking from the lakes into SE Canada, and dragging a cold front through NJ from W to E Saturday morning. Today (Friday) is the last day of temps spiking in the warm sector. Broken precipitation will fall ahead of the cold front tonight into tomorrow (Saturday) morning. The cold front should ultimately push through NJ by Saturday afternoon with peak diurnal sun angle and heating. So it might not feel to chilly during the day Saturday. Once the sun sets however, temperatures should noticeably fall into Saturday night and yield a colder Sunday. Winds should be the greatest their going to be out of the S/SW tonight through tomorrow morning. Winds should then switch to the W/NW behind the cold front for Saturday afternoon through most of Sunday. So, a milder day today (like yesterday), a transitional Saturday, and a colder Sunday. Next week we should bounce back to a milder pattern as high pressure moves offshore and, via return flow, sets up another warm sector (S/SW flow) ahead of an unsettled (another low approaching) Thursday through Saturday. Th March 22 wintry signal that was showing on the long-range GFS has dropped off completely. The latest data is indicating more of a sustained milder pattern to close out March and head into April. This would mean sustained periods of milder weather but with transient (1-2 day) colder periods typically right after a non-wintry storm system moves through.

Friday (March 17) high temperatures should max out today (Friday) in the upper-50s for most with maybe some lower-60s away from the ocean in CNJ/SNJ. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with scattered showers around through evening and overnight hours. Let’s allow for a small chance of isolated downpour maybe even a boomer or two later tonight. Otherwise just spotty rain. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should range from lower-30s to lower-40s from elevations to coasts.

Saturday (March 18) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s before the cold front pushes through. We might achieve these high temperatures earlier in the day than mid-afternoon. Either way, expect temperatures to drop more aggressively as the sun sets. Scattered showers could be around during early-AM hours but conditions should improve by mid-to-late morning. Winds should be breezy out of the W/NW (behind the cold front). Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to lower-30s from elevations to coasts.  

Sunday (March 19) high temperatures should only reach the low-to-mid 40s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain breezy out of the W/NW, possibly become gusty at times. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to lower-30s from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates temperatures moderating back. Looks like highs in the mid-to-upper 50s for most areas with maybe interior CNJ/SNJ reaching into the 60s a few days. Overnight lows down into 30s/40s. Monday-Wednesday looks dry. Thursday-Saturday unsettled. The March 22 signal has dropped off completely and will only provide rain for the SE US if that. New Jersey is likely finished with snow possibility until next winter. The only thing I could see happening are maybe lake-effect flurries/snow showers during any late-March/early-April transient cold snaps with strong NW flow. And even in the case, the ground would likely be too warm for anything but white rain. Let’s take another look at everything in a few days. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™