Mixed Conditions Expected

Discussion: I’m not seeing any upper-level features that stand out either this week or this coming weekend. Most New Jersey weather will be driven by nearby highs and lows and their respective positioning/flow. In the immediate time frame (Monday night (tonight) into Tuesday (tomorrow) morning, we’re dealing with a linear disturbance, mostly generated by convergence but enhanced with a surface low. Given the high Precipitable WATer (PWAT) content of the atmosphere, it’s very easy for an isolated or scattered shower/downpour to turn into a flash flooding event in this kind of setup. So look for rain to move in by tonight (likely during or just after sunset) and rain possibly hard at time through tomorrow morning, maybe into tomorrow PM. Not seeing much rain this week outside of that. We’ll then see a cooldown in temperatures for the Tuesday-Thursday part of this coming week where temps will struggle to escape the 70s. Humidity, however, will still be up there due to NE flow off the ocean (high and low positioning). Not horrible humidity but not non-existent. By Friday another high gets overhead and we’ll warm back up into the 80s which should last through the weekend. More humidity and unsettled conditions that will have many saying, “It’s September, what the heck…is September the new August?” the next chance for rain seems like next Monday-Tuesday with a stronger cold front and possibly some transient relief from temps and humidity. Otherwise September looks to remain above average in temperature with below average rainfall and elevated humidity for as far as I can comfortably see. It might be late-September before any true fall conditions are experienced for more than a day period here and there. About a week ago I showed you a hurricane graphic that indicated some type of tropical cyclone approaching the US in the Sept 3-10 period. Well, here we are and Earl is on the far eastern side of the expectation. Earl will stay far from the US while recurving back to the center of the Atlantic Ocean. The only impacts I see for NJ are possible rip currents along the shore. Danielle is another storm but that is already in the northern-central Atlantic and will have no impacts to NJ. The tropics remain quiet otherwise in one of the quietest tropics seasons I’ve ever seen. I’ll be watching for anything to pop up.

Monday (Sept 5) high temperatures should reach into the 80s for most, maybe closer to 90 away from the ocean. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds at first with a humid feel Eventually, rain and thunderstorms are likely heading into overnight hours. Not really seeing anything fall until sunset or after though. It should start for NWNJ this evening then spread into the rest of NJ overnight. Downpours could produce flash flooding so do be careful driving especially tomorrow (Tuesday) morning. Winds should be light out of the S/SE. Rainfall rates could produce flash flooding, especially overnight as temps bottom out in the mid-to-upper 60s.

Tuesday (Sept 6) high temperatures should reach into the 70s for most areas. It’s a little uncertain as to when the rain will finally move offshore but it looks to stay around at least through morning. Impovement will likely start between afternoon and evening hours. Still a humid feel and winds should be light out of the S/SE. Overnight low should range from 60-65 from elevations to coasts as we all dry out.

Wednesday (Sept 7) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most areas. Skies should be partly-to-mostly cloudy with a humid feel. Can’t rule out stray showers. Winds should be light out of the NE, maybe a bit breezy along the ECNJ/SENJ coasts. Overnight lows should range from 55-65 from elevations to coasts.

Thursday (Sept 8) high temperatures should reach near-80 for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds with a muggy feel. Can’t rule out isolated showers or thunderstorms. Winds should remain light out of the NE. Overnight lows should again range in the 55-65 span from elevations to coasts.

Friday (Sept 9) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 80s for most areas Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the NE, again..breezier along the coast. Overnight lows should range again in the 55-65 span from elevations to coasts.

An early look at the weekend indicates more of the same. Highs into the upper-70/lower-80s with clouds, humidity, and isolated showers/thunderstorms around.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC