Discussion: Upper-level geopotential height anomalies look low for as long as I can comfortably see (out to about April 19 or so). Just one transient period of positive anomalies this Sunday-Monday. We have a well-organized system tracking through New England today. That will drag a cold front through later today (Thursday) with rain, storms and high winds likely. After that it sets the stage for cooler conditions Friday and Saturday. Then another well-organized system should track through the Great Lakes in the Sunday-Monday period. That will place NJ in the warm sector Sunday and Monday (correlating with positive height anomalies) followed by another period of prolonged cooler condition from next Tuesday-forward.
Thursday (April 9) Thunderstorm and Wind Discussion: A cold front should push a period of rain and thunderstorms through NJ from W/NW to E/SE between noon and 4pm today. Most model guidance has it between 1pm and 3pm but let’s add another hour on each side to allow for variance. It will begin in NWNJ and end for the SENJ coast. The period of rain could be heavy at times but likely a short-lived thin strip of precipitation. The bigger story are high winds, most likely in the form of straight line winds out of the W/NW behind the front. These winds will begin after the rain and last overnight into Friday morning (should be howling but nothing we haven’t seen before). I’m thinking sustained 20-30mph with gusts to 50mph at times. There is a very small possibility of a tornado spinning up along the frontal passage this afternoon. Low probability but must be mentioned for safety awareness. Also can’t rule out localized hail with the colder profile aloft.
Friday (April 10) high temperatures should reach near-50 for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy. W/NW winds should gradually subside from gusty in the morning to breezy by late-afternoon. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most areas.
Saturday (April 11) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most areas. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-30s to mid-40s NNJ to SNJ.
Sunday (April 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most areas. Interior CNJ/SNJ might flirt with 70. Immediate ECNJ/SENJ coastal areas might hang in the 50s. Winds should be light out of the S/SW for most, breezier for immediate coastal areas. Overnight lows should fall into the low-to-mid 50s for most areas as rain moves in.
An early look at next week indicates a mild/wet start and cool/clear finish. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC
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