Mixed Conditions

Discussion: It will take most of Monday for the deep cold E US trough to transition away but then ridging is expected to build and linger Tuesday through Friday morning. At the surface we have high pressure moving over the Mid-Altantic US and then down towards Bermuda. This high’s western-side return flow will pump mild and moist air into the region, initially keeping the cold boundary to our NW. A small and progressive trough should then move through New England and the N Mid-Atlantic US Friday and push the boundary through ending precipitation from NW to SE. A slow gradual changeover would occur Friday with precipitation changing to sleet Friday afternoon-evening and then finishing as snow by Friday night. In my experience, these kinds of flat waves fail to produce more than a light snowy outcome. In most cases either the precipitation ends before it’s cold enough or the cold gets hung up. In either case, just a cold rain event. I’m not enthused, as of now, but wouldn’t totally dismiss a light snow accumulation for areas along and NW of the turnpike by Friday evening. More analysis is needed this week before fully ruling out. Everything then clears out and we remain cold and dry Friday night through Sunday. Not as cold as recent times but below-average for this time of year (which is still pretty cold). A few smaller storm signals exist next week but temperatures look marginal…above freezing during the day and below freezing at night. So they would have to thread the needle on timing. Just casually monitoring for now. If we start to like one of the signals within the mid-range forecasting period, we’ll report accordingly.

Monday (Jan 31) high temperatures should range from low-to-upper 30s from N to S with clear skies. Winds should be light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should drop into the single digits/teens for much of the state but hang closer to 30 for ECNJ/SNJ coasts.

Tuesday (Feb 1) high temperatures should range from mid-30s to mid-40s N to S. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should remain light out of the E/NE. Overnight lows should range from mid-20s to mid-30s.

Wednesday (Feb 2) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should increase in cloudiness throughout the day. Winds should be light out of the E/SE. Overnight lows should hover near-40 with rain showers possible overnight.  

Thursday (Feb 3) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 40s for most areas. Skies should be mostly cloudy with periods of rain likely. NWNJ elevations could mix at times especially towards overnight hours. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s but stay above freezing except for maybe highest NWNJ elevations.

Friday (Feb 4) we’re monitoring a possible rain-to-sleet-to-snow situation throughout the day. NWNJ would be most favored for ending with wintry type precipitation. SENJ would be least favored. Either way, it currently seems like mostly a rain event with only small potential for snow on the back side. More analysis is needed but that’s the general idea. A much colder Friday night with temps down into the 10-20 range N to S.

An early look at the weekend indicates colder conditions lasting after Friday’s cold front. Saturday looks colder than Sunday but both days should only reach into 30s with overnight lows back down into the teens. There are 2-3 storm signals between the general Feb 6-12 period (next week) that I’ll casually monitor. If any of them start to amplify within the 5-7 day period we’ll start discussing. But for now (this week), enjoy the break from cold and snow until at least Friday.   

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™