Mini Heat Wave Concludes

Discussion: Weather conditions will be very transitional from today to tomorrow. Our mini heat wave peaks today but a cold front will push in from the N/NE overnight yielding a much cooler Saturday-forward. You might have heard of a back-door cold front before as typically normal cold fronts approach from the W or NW (with mid-latitude jet circulation), not the NE (against the grain of mid-latitude jet circulation). But anyway, that’s what is expected to happen tonight/overnight. This front could spark some thunderstorm action tonight/overnight as it plows into the hotter areas of NJ away from the ocean (NWNJ most favored). Coastal areas should remain stable overnight. Saturday then should see NE flow with clouds and showers associated with lower heights/lifting. The Saturday rain aspect doesn’t look too heavy or widespread but passing showers are likely for sure. A surface low meandering off Cape Cod will be the closest to NJ on Saturday but not a direct hit. Because if this, ENJ/coastal NJ will see higher NE winds than the rest of NJ away from the ocean. Coastal areas are therefore subject to hazardous/dangerous surf and rip conditions on Saturday. But overall, the theme Saturday should be cool and comfortable after the heat and humidity Thurs-Fri. Sunday looks dry and pleasant as light N/NE flow controls the region. It looks very dry Sunday through next week which will continue to concern for wildfires and drought. I imagine there will be isolated pop-ups with the lower heights but nothing widespread/drought-busting. As far as the temperature pattern is concerned, the Rex Block has had a lot to do with it. The ridging associated with the block will now retrograde from SE Canada to SC Canada. This will allow the lower heights in for this weekend and next week. ~June 10 is still sticking out to me as a turning point where upper flow transitions from northerly to westerly, possibly SW. This would snap us out of the cooler pattern and bring us to more of a traditional pattern. Average highs in NJ for June range from upper-70s to mid-80s (from start of June to end of June). We’re going to be in the upper-60s/lower-70s for the first third of June. Below average? Yes. Beautiful/comfortable conditions? Yes. Ideal for the beachgoer? No. They like it hotter. But things should change by mid-month.

Friday (June 2) high temperatures are already nearing 90 degrees along the W side of NJ (as of noonish today – Friday). I expect temps to soar to about 95 in the hottest areas by afternoon. Much of NJ will flirt with 90 today (Friday). ECNJ/SENJ coasts are well into the 60s and will likely climb to the mid-70s. Most of NJ today will be mixed with more sun than clouds. Humidity is slightly elevated but not swampy. The hotter areas (N and W of 95) have the best chance to see a pop-up thunderstorm approach from the N. Winds will remain light out of the N as overnight lows struggle to dip below 60.

Saturday (June 3) high temperatures should reach the lower-70s for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal areas should max in the 60s. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Passing showers are likely. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NE away from the ocean and breezy-to-gusty out of the NE along the coast. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (June 4) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 70s away from the ocean. Maybe a few W/NW NJ areas reach 80. Coastal areas closer to 70. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should fall into the upper-40s/lower-50s ballpark for most NJ locations.

An early look at next week indicates a cooler pattern sustaining. Highs in the upper-60s/lower-70s with mostly dry conditions…spring showers here and there. We’ll take as much rainfall as we can get to combat the developing drought – and the wildfire risk that comes with such. I’m still eyeing ~June 10 for the start of a more traditional summer-like heat and humidity setup. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC  

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC