Milder Weekend Reprise. Hard Back to Fall Next Week.

Discussion: The upper-jet is going to transition from a split-flow pattern across the E US to more of a large progressive trough by the end of this weekend. During the transition this weekend, New Jersey will spike a little milder in temperature with highs reaching well into the 70s while still seeing chilly nights. Breezy at times. By Monday, the larger progressive trough will push into NJ from the NW and drop temps another gear into fall for next week. A solid stretch of overnight frosts, possibly even freeze (for highest NNJ elevations). We’re looking at a little bit of rain possible Monday ahead of the cold front, then again later next week after the colder period relaxes towards next weekend.

Milton could have been a lot worse. Don’t get me wrong, I am seeing a lot of damage (Tampa Stadium roof destroyed, dumpsters on top of houses, horrible surge videos) but a few things happened that mitigated the worst-case scenario and just resulted in a horrible scenario. Unfortunately, there’s another tropical signal in the Gulf of Mexico beginning around Oct 18-19 which, like the prior two tropical systems, has no threat to NJ but could cause problems for the Gulf States. Let’s see how it all looks next week.

Real quick, tonight NNJ elevations could dip into the upper-30s while the rest of NJ easily falls into the 40s. A sharp drop with sundown.

Friday (Oct 11) high temperatures should reach the mid-to-upper 60s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall to the 45-55 range from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Saturday (Oct 12) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 70s for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 40-55 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (Oct 13) high temperatures should range from upper-60s to mid-70s from N to S. Skies should be a little cloudier for NNJ and a little sunnier for SNJ…otherwise mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the S/SW, breezier along the coasts. Overnight lows should range from 50-60 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week (Oct 14-18) indicates lots of sunshine and clear skies but a sharp turn into fall. I’m seeing highs struggling to escape the 50s away from the ocean…60s for coasts. Also seeing lows well down into the 30s…40s for coasts. Get the extra clothing/jackets/coats/etc. out if you haven’t already. After a little warm reprise this weekend, a reminder that winter is coming…is coming next week. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC