Milder Pattern Returns

Discussion: The upper jet will finally shift to the N of New Jersey for most of the foreseeable future. 500mb geopotential heights will reflect this with near-to-above values—indicating a milder pattern setting in. Today (Friday) should be the last of the cooler days for a while. We should then build warmth at the surface Saturday into next week. High pressure in the lower levels will meander to the W of Bermuda—eventually switching NJ back to W or W/SW flow by the end of the weekend. The rain finally shuts off after today as the upper low/trough continues it’s departure eastward. It looks like 70s are possible this weekend and 80s are possible next weekend. Next week we might see one of two days where temps fall just short of 70. But that sure as heck beats the last few weeks with many days failing to reach 60. It took a while, but the good stuff is finally arriving tomorrow (Saturday).

Friday (May 5) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most New Jersey areas. Skies should be mixed with more clouds than sun. Can’t rule out more passing showers, especially in the afternoon. Winds should be light out of the N/NE. Overnight lows should range from 40 to 50 from elevations to coasts.   

Saturday (May 6) high temperatures should reach 70 for most New Jersey locations away from the ocean. Immediate coastal areas should hang in the mid-60s. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from mid-40s to mid-50s from elevations to coasts.

Sunday (May 7) high temperatures should reach the mid-70s for most New Jersey locations away from the ocean. Skies should be mixed with more sun than clouds. Bur remember, rogue isolated showers are always possible this time of year, especially in the afternoon. But most should stay dry. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from near-50 to near-60 from elevations to coasts.

An early look at next week indicates the milder pattern holding (mostly). The warmth should build through Monday into Tuesday. Looks like a stormfront Tuesday PM into Wednesday AM. Slightly cooler Wednesday and Thursday but still well into the 60s for most. Then we return to 70s and even 80s heading into next weekend. Everyone have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC