Milder Mostly Nice Weekend. Snow?

Discussion: This weekend is straightforward. A mild and zonal setup with a weak disturbance floating through Saturday night into Sunday morning. Looks like nuisance rain showers that will occur overnight—sparing Saturday and Sunday daylight hours with just sun, clouds, and a milder feel. This, of course, after today (Friday) which is still cooler and breezy statewide but kind of nice after recent times. Next week should continue the active pattern of precipitation. The GFS, Euro, and Canadian all suggest snowfall is possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning. My name is Jonathan Carr and I do not approve this message. The thought of April snow makes me nauseous. The sun angle is so high. Even overnight surfaces are too warm for stickage due to longwave radiation reflection and other influences. But the models say that snow might fall Wednesday night into Thursday morning so it is my duty to report accordingly. I will casually monitor over this weekend to see if the signal still exists Sunday night. If so, it will be laughably time to take it seriously. For the baseball analogy, this isn’t even part of the season or extra innings. The season is over and the stadium is empty. This would be like kids sneaking into the stadium and having their own soft-toss game.

Friday (March 29) high temperatures are maxing out in the mid-50s, maybe a few spots flirting with 60 in the Trenton<->Philly area. Skies are clear and winds are breezy, occasionally gusty, out of the W/NW. I expect these conditions to continue as overnight lows fall into the 30s for most NJ locations.

Saturday (March 30) high temperatures should flirt with breaking 60 statewide aside from the immediate coast where mid-50s should be common. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds but increase in cloud coverage overnight. Periods of rain are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning but of nuisance totals, not soaker totals. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (March 31) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations. NNJ/NWNJ elevations could hang in the mid-to-upper 50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

An early look at next week indicates temps in the 40s and 50s with ample rain chances throughout the week. Some models are suggesting snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning (April 3-4). IMO it’s too late for snow in the season. I don’t want it to happen. I am laughing about it possibly happening. Hopefully these won’t be the reasons why it actually happens. I will continue to monitor the model output over this weekend and will report accordingly. Be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC