Discussion: 500mb heights should remain below-average through the weekend and especially next week. As high pressure departs further into the Atlantic Ocean this weekend, low pressure cutting to our NW into Canada will assist with the southerly flow. Tonight low pressure should move directly overhead of New Jersey from SW to NE and drive tonight’s rainstorm. It’s noteworthy to highlight the cold air damming (CAD) effect. As warm southerly flow warms the layers into all rain, the surface might hang on to below-freezing temperatures if the cold air dams against the Appalachian Mountains in NWNJ. This could mean rain hitting a colder surface, initially, and freezing on impact as freezing rain. This should be more of an issue for PA but could spill over into NWNJ today. A cold front should then move through on Monday and return the region to seasonably average conditions Tuesday-forward. The winter storm pattern is still showing on overall guidance (upper-level ensembles). However, no wintry surface solutions are showing for New Jersey yet. It is completely possible that the surface does not produce a winter storm for New Jersey even under the favorable upper-level environment. I’ll be watching closely as we approach the favorable period. For now, still just an upper-level signal.
Saturday (Nov 24) high temperatures should reach the upper-40s/lower-50s statewide. Skies should be mostly cloudy with rainfall, moderate to heavy at times, possible from afternoon through overnight hours. Rainfall should arrive in WNJ by 3pm and ENJ by 6pm. The heaviest rainfall should be from 7pm to 11pm. Precipitation should wrap up during early Sunday AM hours with a general .75 to 1.5 inches of total rainfall (locally higher possible). NWNJ, especially elevations, could see some freezing rain at the start of precipitation before the surface warms above freezing. Please be careful. Winds should be breezy-to-gusty out of the E/SE. Breezy inland (gusts to 25mph) and gusty along the shore (gusts into the 30-40mph possible). Overnight lows should hang near 40 for most.
Sunday (Nov 25) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s for most. Skies should be partly sunny. Winds should be light out of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most.
An early look at next week indicates milder temperatures continuing (relative to the cold snap we just had). Highs in the 40s lows in the 20s/30s. Possibly some more rain on Monday followed by a more stable rest of the week. The favorable upper-level pattern for winter storm development is still showing however no wintry solutions are modeled at the surface. If the pattern is to produce a winter storm in late-November/early-December pertiod, it needs to youknowwhat or get off the pot.
Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™