Mild Weekend Precedes Colder Week

Discussion: We have a few more mild days this weekend before the pattern changes. Saturday looks like the sunnier drier day. Sunday subject to more clouds and passing isolated showers but far from a washout. The cold frontal passage looks mostly dry. Both days in the 60s away from the ocean. A colder air mass will then settle into the region for the period of March 18-24 (Monday-Friday). Highs should reach near-50 while lows drop into the 20s/30s (40s near coast). With that said, it would be cold enough for snow overnight to the NW of I-95/NJTP. I’m not seeing any synoptic storm systems until March 24 though and the region warms just before. The only chance for some flurries would be random lake effect action early-to-mid next week as W/NW winds blow over the lakes towards NJ. March 24 is more interesting from a coastal flooding concern than a snow concern IMO. I will casually monitor the signal should it turn wintry next week but that’s our last out of the bottom of the 9^th inning of winter. If the signal remains warm and rainy (struck out swining), that’s likely it for snow outside of a freakish anomaly in early April. The rest of March is looking too mild for snow as well. It’s time to start thinking about spring nor’easters and thunderstorms.

Saturday (March 16) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 60s for most NJ locations away from the ocean. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a run at 70 for interior CNJ/SNJ. Coastal regions should struggle to escape the 50s. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be light out of the W/SW. Overnight lows should range from 40-50 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts.

Sunday (March 17) high temperatures should reach near-60 for most NJ locations. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds and a few isolated rain showers around (favoring NW of I-95/NJTP). Winds should be breezy out of the W. Overnight lows should range from 30-40 from NNJ elevations to SNJ coasts as colder air moves in behind the departing showers.

An early look at next week indicates colder conditions through the weekend. Highs in the upper-40s/lower-50s and lows in the 20s/30s. Any snow would have to fall hard and overnight to stick and right now I’m not seeing any snowstorms. A colder drier week with a small chance of lake effect showers that would struggle to stick or melt into light rain aloft. There’s a storm signal for the end of next weekend (March 23-24) but as of now it looks rainy. I’ll check on that signal early next week but that’s likely the last out of the bottom of the 9^th. Have a great weekend and please be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety discussion and forecasting services for New Jersey and surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible forecast discussion ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact this great garden state of ours. All Weather. All New Jersey.™ Be safe! JC