Mild Week Sets up Transient Cold Weekend

Discussion: Our coastal storm cleared out earlier this morning but the back-side cold has not yet arrived. Remember this coastal storm was a small area of colder air within an overall/regional warm air mass. So as soon as we popped out the back/W side of it, we warmed back up. Colder air is on the way for tonight (Monday) though as the lower-mid levels finally catch onto and respect the NW flow. NW winds should pick up tonight and allow us to all dip into the 30s before bouncing back into the 50s tomorrow. By Wednesday, we’ll be under SW flow influence within the ridge. This should allow for an unseasonably mild Wednesday and Thursday. Clouds should increase Thursday as a warm front-warm sector-cold front combo moves through with all said components attached to a low tracking through the Great lakes. The cold front should be through by Friday afternoon allowing for a colder Friday sunset to Saturday night period. Then we’re right back to unseasonably mild Sunday through ~next Wednesday. The pattern overall will remain mild and unfavorable for snow storm development for the remainder of February. I am watching the Feb 23-24 period for a marginal wave-like disturbance but like everything else this season so far, it will be a thread the needle situation to get snow below the NWNJ elevations. Right now it looks like a snow/rain line setting up through EPA and NWNJ. We have some time to track this evolution but don’t get your hopes up. Moving beyond that, there are still some indicators of a colder tail-end to February and March. First is the Sudden Stratospheric Warming Event (SSWE) which is strongly modeled to occur this Thursday-Friday (Feb 16-17). This will expand the stratosphere over the N pole and condense the troposphere beneath. The colder tropospheric cold air over the N pole cannot go into the solid Earth, so it will spill to lower latitudes.  There is still some uncertainty as to which areas of the N Hemisphere the colder air will spill towards but the E US is still a possibility. Also there are some tropical lifting signals in the equatorial W Pacific (MJO) that indicate a colder downstream period for the E US. The SSWE and MJO indicators are aligning with the colder end of Feb into March so we’ll see. Will it be just cold? Or cold and snow? I’ll be watching. If nothing plays out in the first half to first 2/3 of March, then we’re likely finished with wintry precip for the Winter 2022-2023 season…and right on time with the calendar. We do have about 4-5 weeks left though.  

Monday (Feb 13) high temperatures should reach the 55-60 range for many areas. Skies should be mostly sunny (some clouds around). Winds should be light our of the W/NW. Overnight lows should fall into the 30s for most areas as NW winds pick up a little.

Tuesday (Feb 14) high temperatures should reach the low-to-mid 50s. Skies should be mostly sunny. Winds should be light-to-breezy out of the NW. Overnight lows should fall back into the 30s with increasing cloud coverage. Fog not off the table with the incoming warmer air mass.

Wednesday (Feb 15) high temperatures should reach into the 60s for most areas. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Winds should be breezy out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should only fall into the 40s for most areas.

Thursday (Feb 16) high temperatures should reach well into the 60s again for many locations, maybe just mid-to-upper 50s for immediate coastal areas. Skies should increase in cloud coverage with periods of rain likely starting by afternoon and extending into the overnight. Can’t rule out a few embedded boomers. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall to near-50 for most areas as rainy/cloudy conditions persist into Friday morning.

Friday (Feb 17) high temperatures should spike towards ~60 again but earlier in the day. Cloudy and rain conditions should continue until the cold front pushes through and chills/dries the region. This should happen by afternoon with more boomer chances possible right along/ahead of the front. Temps should then noticeably drop through sunset with overnight lows falling into the 20s for all NJ areas. NW winds should accompany such Friday night into Saturday morning.

An early look at the weekend indicates a cold start after the Friday cold front that should last through Saturday…highs in the lower-40s type stuff. Temperatures should then rebound back to the warmer pattern for Sunday through about next Wednesday. The next synoptic storm signal is next Thurs-Friday (Feb 23-24). It’s a bit out but long-range guidance has been persistent on some kind of snow/rain (N areas/S areas) event occurring for that period. Then we eye up how cold it will get to close out February and start March. More details in the discussion above. Have a great week, enjoy the mild conditions, and pleas be safe! JC

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™