Mild Start Ends Cooler (March 29-31)

Discussion: We’re now in the warm sector between the approaching lakes-tracking low and elongated high in the W Atlantic. This should sustain mild S/SW flow from now until Sunday morning when the expected cold front should push through. Interior CNJ/SNJ/NENJ should spike the warmest today and tomorrow while NWNJ elevations and immediate coastal areas hang cooler. The S/SW flow off the ocean should keep immediate coastal Cumberland, Cape May, Atlantic, Ocean and Monmouth Counties cooler. If the front was timed with peak Saturday surface heating then we might have seen some t-storm fireworks. However since the frontal passage is expected for Sunday morning we’ll likely see a lackluster period of just rain instead. Perhaps an embedded boomer could happen but meh. Skies should clear Sunday afternoon and we should remain cooler through Tuesday. A coastal disturbance could graze SENJ Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with some rain and wind but it does not look major. From Wednesday and through the weekend should then be mild featuring mostly sun but not without the typical passing spring shower.

Friday (March 29) high temperatures should range from near-60 to near-70 from NNJ to SNJ. NWNJ and Immediate coastal regions could hang lower. Skies should gradually improve throughout the day transitioning from mostly-cloudy to partly-cloudy by sunset. NNJ is hanging onto the last of the rain which should end shortly. Winds should be light out of the S/SW. Overnight lows should fall into the 40s statewide.

Saturday (March 30) high temperatures should break 70 for most areas away from the ocean. Coastal regions could hang in the 60s due to colder breezy marine flow out of the S. Skies should be mixed with sun and clouds. Overnight lows should fall into the 50s for most maybe mid-to-upper 40s for NNJ elevations.

Sunday (March 31) high temperatures should range from near-50 to near-60 NNJ to SNJ and likely occur earlier in the day. Once the front is through temps should gradually fall. Skies should start mostly cloudy with rain likely. The sun should make its way out prior to sunset and possibly closer to noon with any luck. Winds should be light out of the W. Overnight lows should range from upper-20s to mid-30s NNJ to SNJ.

An early look at next week indicates a cooler Monday-Tuesday (highs near 50) followed by a mild Wednesday into the weekend (highs near-60+). I’m watching a potential coastal disturbance for the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning period. This could bring a period of rain and wind (SENJ favored) but nothing major. Right now it just looks like a graze. Will monitor and report if it becomes anything stronger.

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Jonathan Carr

Jonathan Carr (JC) is the founder and sole operator of Weather NJ, New Jersey’s largest independent weather reporting agency. Since 2010, Jonathan has provided weather safety and forecasting services for New Jersey and immediate surrounding areas through the web and social media. Originally branded as Severe NJ Weather (before 2014), Weather NJ is proud to bring you accurate and responsible discussions ahead of high-stakes weather scenarios that impact the garden state. All Weather. All New Jersey.™